Super Bowl LIII Picks

Los Angeles Rams v New England Patriots

Super Bowl Sunday. America’s favorite party and the last football game for seven months. A great day if you’re a casual fan or a neutral observer, the longest day of the year if your team is playing. Trust me, I know from experience. Time never moves quite as slowly as it does on Super Bowl day. If you’re not like me and don’t suffer from crippling anxiety about an inconsequential event I have absolutely no control over, you can probably get a lot done during the day. The morning never ends and the afternoon lasts forever. 4:30-6:15 is four separate eternities. And then the game starts, and, if you have a rooting interest, it’s the longest four hours in history. The day is mostly agony, broken only by the cosmic coin flip that is the final result. But, again, that’s only if you’re like me.

If you’re not like me you’re probably going to a party with a bunch of people you either like or are tangentially connected to where you’ll spend a few hours eating food and having rote, boring, uninformed conversations about football and commercials and hear such gems as “Tom Brady’s a cheater,” or “I’m so sick of the Patriots,” or “you know, this should really be the Saints. Did you folks see what happened to them?” Sounds like hell to me. I’ll be in my apartment, alone, breaking down film in real time. That’s what a true expert does. That’s why you’re reading my thoughts on the Super Bowl and not your friend Doug’s. Doug thinks he’s the first person to come up with a Sean McVay coaching tree joke. He’s not, trust me. Super Bowl parties also leave too much to chance, mostly food related. What if you get there and there are no wings? Or no pizza? Or weird chips or a weird dip you don’t want but your friend’s girlfriend made it so you have to try it? Pass. Let me provide my own spread. It’s better that way.

Onto the game itself.

New England Patriots (-3) vs Los Angeles Rams

Did you know these two teams played 17 years ago in the Super Bowl, kicking off the Patriots Dynasty? Bet you didn’t. In a weird way, the roles are kind of reversed this time around. The Patriots as the established powerhouse with the championship pedigree against the young coach-QB combo that has aspirations of something greater. But it’s far from apples to apples. For starters, the Pats are only 3 point favorites as opposed to 14 point favorites (which, game-that-shall-not-be-named notwithstanding, I don’t think will ever happen again in a Super Bowl). There’s also no pressure on the Pats. What’s their penalty for losing? Brady and Belichick are suddenly not the best ever? The key players of the Patriots’ run get nothing out of this game either way. It’s all on the Rams. They’re the ones with the revolutionary coach that will undoubtedly see 31 of his former assistants as head coaches within the next five years. They’re the ones that went all-in on free agency and have the hopes and dreams of every single NFL player who wants both money and success riding on them. They’re the ones who have to carry the flame for the NFL’s entertainment-focused agendas. They’re the ones who, most likely, will be set up as the next team to kind of run the league for a few years if they win. And they very well might win. They have the firepower offensively and the beasts on defense. They won 13 games for a reason. In an alternate reality where the Chiefs won last week, I’d be rooting for the Rams. It’s in the league’s best interest for McVay to win. I like a lot of their players. Love Jared Goff. Aaron Donald is one of the five best NFL players I’ve ever seen. I’ve always been a big Ndamokung Suh guy despite the…antics. Aqib Talib is a former Patriot great. But they’re not going to win. The Pats are too smart, too tough, too experienced. This game is going to come down to the wire. Would you rather be the team with comically clutch quarterback and the coach who’s prepared for everything or the first time coach and QB with the injured kicker? I’ll hang up and listen. Sorry, America. Pats win again.

Just kidding. I’m not sorry.

Pick: Patriots

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NFL: Super Bowl LI-New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

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Prop Bet Special (via Bovada)

  • Coin Toss- Heads -105
  • National Anthem Over/Under 1:49 (Gladys Knight)- Over -145
  • Will Any Scoring Drive Take Less Time Than Anthem?- Yes -145
  • Over/Under Tony Romo Correct Pre-Play Predictions 7.5- Under -135
  • Aaron Donald QB Hits Over/Under 2.5- Under -135
  • How Many Times Will Ted Rath (Sean McVay’s get-back coach) Be Mentioned O/U 3.5- Under -400
  • O/U Sean McVay’s Age Mentioned 1.5- Over -270
  • O/U Total Net Yards 824.5- Under -140
  • What Color Liquid Dumped On Coach? Orange +450
  • Who Will MVP Mention First in Speech? Teammates +160
  • First Song Performed by Maroon 5? “Moves Like Jagger” +600
  • Predominant Color of Adam Levine’s Shirt? Other Color Than Black EVEN
  • Will Puppy Bowl MVP Be Pure Breed or Mixed? Mixed -800
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