Category: NFL

Folks…. there are only three football games left until August. I hate to be the one to break that to you, but it’s my duty to be honest with my audience. More honesty- I don’t know what to do with myself this week. This is the first time since the 2011 season the Patriots aren’t in the AFC Championship Game. How do you normals deal with this? I need the pit in my stomach. I need to feel the Sword of Damocles hanging above my head every second of the day. Instead I have to what, spend the day normally then watch two football games I’m not overly invested in? That sounds horrible. Where’s the meaning in such a thing? You’re telling me the Super Bowl will be the same way, too? And the game starts even later, so I’ll have to waste time without the anxiety? What a terrible start to 2020 this has been. Luckily, I’m 8-0 in the playoffs, which is the only thing salvaging this cursed month. No chance I don’t keep the momentum going this week. Want the most likely Super Bowl Matchup? Just keep reading to find out.

All lines from Bovada.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

The Titans won back in November when they played in Smashville, and surely absolutely nothing has changed since then. That’s not actually much of a joke. Look at the box score of that game. Notice anything abnormal? Chiefs outgained them by 150+ yards and Derrick Henry DOMINATED which is… exactly what happened to the Ravens last week. And the Pats the week before. The Chiefs’ D has gone through a weird transformation this season from scapegoat to underrated to so underrated they’re overrated, but Chris Jones might not play, and if he does, he’ll be limited. He’s their best defensive lineman. It’s bad if your best defensive lineman can’t go against Derrick Henry. Just a hot take I’ve developed. If we visualize what this game will be, why can’t the Titans just grind out another crazy win? Why can’t they stiffen at just the right moments to keep their opponent from really doing what they want to do? Why can’t Tannehill avoid mistakes and ride the Henry wave again? Barring injury, Derrick Henry is going to get 35+ carries and 180+ yards. It’s just what’s going to happen. Why wouldn’t that just result in another Titans win? Why can’t Vrabel and the boys just do what they’ve done every other week and punch the Chiefs in the mouth? Because there’s another side to this equation, and what would happen if the Chiefs score 14 in the first quarter? What happens if the Titans are down two scores in the second half? Or what if the Mahomes just doesn’t feel like being stopped? I’m not sure the Titans really have a backup plan. They’ve got one way, and if it doesn’t work, uhhh… GG. I love the Titans. I love Henry and I love Mikey V. But they’re up against the most powerful man in the NFL. If it’s not perfect, they’ll get wiped out. Believe me, this isn’t what I want.

Pick: Chiefs -7.5 😉

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Listen, if I had my druthers, the Super Bowl would be Titans-49ers to ensure the Patriots’ legacy never dies. If the NFL had its druthers, it would surely be Chiefs-Packers to coincide with the NFL 100 celebration. It’ll be somewhere in the middle because I guarantee, I personally guarantee the Niners will win. I’m talking the biggest lock I’ve ever put out. The first-ever Brian’s Den 69th Degree Ultra-Mega Lock. Not because the Niners SMASHED the Packers the last time they played, not because the Niners are the most complete team remaining, and definitely not because the Packers haven’t played a good four quarters since 2011. It’s because, as we know, Aaron Rodgers is from Northern California. According to this handy map I have, Levi’s Stadium is also in the northern half of California. That means that not only will Aaron Rodgers be in the same state as his family, he’ll be in the same general geographic region. Theoretically, his parents could go to this game. Rodgers’ untethered rage at the mere thought of someone sharing DNA with him witnessing him play football in person will completely throw him off. Multiple picks from Rodgers, a billion yards from Kittle, and an ugly, ugly scene in Wisconsin.

Pick: Niners -7.5

I think, sadly, we can finally say it; it’s unquestionably, unequivocally, 100% certainly over. At 12:00 AM this morning, my birthday ended. Didn’t get that new GameBoy Advance SP, didn’t get fifty unopened packs of Yu-Gi-Oh cards, didn’t even get a puppy. The only things I got were the sobering revelations that I’m one year closer to the grave (maybe this is a happy revelation?) and that my life has been mostly meaningless to this point and is approaching the point where it might just kind of be meaningless forever and a bunch of McDonald’s. A good birthday, all things considered. But it’s in the past now, and it’s time to move on. Oh, what’s that? You thought I was going to say something else was over? Surely not the twenty-year dynasty that’s won six Super Bowls and is guaranteed* to bring back the greatest player in NFL history, right? No one would be so foolish as to say that’s over. You can’t win every year, and I’d rather lose to Vrabel than Andy Reid. If you’re burying the Pats, good luck next season.

I should probably talk about the teams that are actually still eligible for the Lombardi Trophy this year, shouldn’t I? Some are saying eight teams are still alive. Many more still are saying that, theoretically, any of those eight could win the title. We’re smart, though, so we know that only one of them will. And, as I showed by going 4-0 last week, I’ve always got my finger directly on the pulse of the NFL playoffs. Divisional round can be a little weird when the Wild Card round had upsets because there’s a lingering hope that’s typically reserved only for college tournaments. There’s a reason scrappy 6-seeds don’t usually fare well in the playoffs (spoiler alert), but every few moons one catches lightning in a bottle. Could this year provide us with two 6-seeds in the conference championship? Whomst among us could say? Me, that’s who. I’m sorry, I know my heart isn’t totally in it, anymore, so sue me. Remember last year when my favorite team won the Super Bowl? That was nice. All lines from Bovada.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Not to keep using the exact same logic I do whenever I pick against the Vikings, but, like, come on. Kirk Cousins isn’t going to the NFC Championship Game, right? Well, nothing’s stopping him from buying a ticket. However, there is a universe where everything goes wrong for the Niners. I love Jimmy G, but he can be shaky. Worse than shaky, honestly. And the Vikings allowed only one receiving touchdown to opposing tight ends all year. George Kittle has a case for being the best offensive player in football, but if Jimmy’s nervous and the Vikings quadruple team him, there’s not a whole lot he’ll be able to do. Vikings could play ball control, avoid mistakes, yada yada yada. If the Niners score early and calm everyone down, it’s over. They’re too good, even if the Vikings are better than your typical 6-seed. The best case the Vikings have is the pact Bud Grant made with whatever cosmic entity presides over Minnesota that dictates the Vikings can only lose in the most heartbreaking way imaginable. Losing on the road in San Fran isn’t heartbreaking. Losing to the Packers in the NFC Championship Game would be. Even though it spits in the frozen god’s face, I’ll die before I pick Kirk on the road in the playoffs.

Pick: Niners -7

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

Listen, the path is there. Maybe I’m imagining it because I really, really want it to be true, but the path is there for the Titans to win. Score early, give Derrick Henry the ball 60 times, hold on for dear life. Maybe Lamar will be nervous or forget to show up at the stadium on time? It’s just not realistic. Ravens are an absolute wagon. Mikey V will do his damndest to keep the Pats’ streak of AFC Championship Game appearances going by proxy, but there’s just too much to overcome. Titans put up a good fight, Ravens pull away late.

Pick: Ravens -10

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

The Texans randomly won in Kansas City earlier this year, but they’re not about to do it again. People forget Andy Reid doesn’t lose after byes. Chiefs are too hot right now. Too good on defense, Mahomes is quietly (somehow, although next week don’t be surprised if the “quietly” part of it becomes an annoying subplot that gets beaten to death) nearly as good as he was last year when he was one of the best QBs of all time, too big of a coaching disparity. Never say Deshaun absolutely can’t win, but this AFC Championship matchup seems destined to happen.

Pick: Chiefs -9.5

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4)

All home teams winning? Sounds boring. Good thing the Seahawks are here to shake things up. People are too focused on Tom Brady and Drew Brees to realize that Aaron Rodgers STINKS now. He’s terrible, the Packers’ offense is terrible, Matt LaFleur is getting familial-levels of ire on the sideline. I freaking hate Aaron Rodgers, man. I know it’s impossible for the Seahawks to blow anyone out, but all I want is for Rodgers to play like he has all season in front of a national audience so everyone can finally come to grips with the fact that he’s not good anymore. Time to bring back the old question “what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” He lost in the playoffs yet again, that’s what’s wrong with him. This is a big-time “man, the Seahawks just can’t get anything going. Russell Wilson looks a little lost out there. Still, Packers only up six” game. Expect a lot of dejected owners in the stands during the fourth quarter.

Pick: Seahawks +4

*please

Hello, my name is Brian, and I’m new to Wild Card Weekend. I’ve watched from afar, casually crushing pizza and wings, chuckling to myself as the league’s best bad teams play in games they think actually matter. I used to find it adorable and exciting, but now I’ve been dragged down into the mud. Now I’m the one who has to scratch and claw for every first down as I shout to the void that my team has a chance next week against the best teams in the conference. Now I’ve got to feel like every other fan in the world, living and dying with every play of the preliminary playoff round no one cares about, knowing death awaits next week. Now I’ve got to *shudders* watch old Giants highlights to try and convince myself it can be done. I don’t like it. I don’t like it one bit. How do all of you heathens live like this? It’s the first week of January, and I’m stressed out about a football game. What? My birthday hasn’t even happened yet and I’m worried about the end of all things. This is absurd, and I would like something done about it. I’m sure the league will be willing to swap the Pats’ and Chiefs’ seedings, right? Do a quick favor for everyone’s favorite franchise? No? Okay.

Literally all the fun has been sapped out of this weekend for me, but there’s a chance everyone else in America will look back on January 4th, 2020 as something resembling V-J Day. I’ll save my thoughts on that for later. But for everyone without a rooting interest, Wild Card Weekend is the perfect appetizer. Get a taste of playoff action before the big boys show up. Let the young teams on the rise and surprising stories get one last moment in the sun. Warm your digestive system up for the relentless assault it will have to endure over the next month with all the beer and snacks and fried food and pizza and whatever else you prefer (there are no wrong answers in gameday grazing unless it’s a vegetable-based non-dip/finger food offering) (And keep your wine away from my NFL you filthy hipster). You can kind of roll your holiday partying and eating habits over into the Super Bowl, which, by that time, will be close enough to March Madness where you can convince yourself that eating terrible food and drinking a ton is all life is and that you’ll live forever because you’re 21 years old again. Football takes priority over any resolutions, so don’t worry about going to the gym, or whatever. Just watch football and work out tomorrow. That’s what I’ve always done, and look at me! A true Adonis in every sense. Embrace Wild Card Weekend, it’s the last time the stakes of the games don’t crush the joy out of every snap before late summer. That’s a scary sentence. You know what else is scary? How good I am at picking playoff games. Be thankful you get to come along for the ride once again. All lines from Bovada.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)

And you thought Jags-Colts last week was irrelevant. Apologies to the good people of Buffalo and the tens (dozens?) of devoted Texans fans. Guess what the h8rz will be furious to learn? The Texans, not the Pats, are, according to DVOA, the worst team in the playoffs (how about Dallas being 6th? Kind of makes you question the validity of the whole thing…). They are, of course, granted special abilities by playing in their traditional Saturday afternoon timeslot, but that powerful home-field advantage can only do so much in the face of Josh Allen and the Bills. I know what you’re thinking: Deshaun Watson at home has to be better than Josh Allen on the road, right? Wrong. The Bills have the better defense, the better coaching staff, and the better jerseys. And they’re the only AFC playoff team the Pats actually beat this year and they could theoretically meet in the AFC Championship Game. I’m trying to muster some optimism, just let me have this. Josh Allen got a ton of hate during the draft and last year and even during this year (mostly from me), but he’s about to explode onto the scene as the semi-forgotten young QB you can build around. JJ Watt’s ill-advised return from injury won’t save them.

Pick: Bills +3

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5)

I’ll level with everyone: I’m worried. I’m worried that this is it and that the final game ends not in triumph, but in humiliation and ridicule. And this is a terrible, terrible matchup. The Titans coach is a Patriots legend. Half their roster is former Patriots. They have the best, most explosive running back in the league. Their number one receiver is essentially a clone of the player that beat them last week to kick them into the nadir of hope known as the Wild Card round. They’re red hot, younger, and desperate to prove themselves. Everyone who’s watched one second of both the 2019 Pats and the Tannehill Titans would say the boys from Nashville have more than just a shot at winning in Gillette, they should be expected to be in it at the end. It would be a small measure of irony if Mike Vrabel delivered the final blow to the greatest dynasty in the history of professional sports. And if this is the end, what a run. Never fully appreciated, always discounted, always thrown to the side for newer, flashier teams, always dragged down by fake controversies concocted by jealous also-rans, always delivering happiness to those of us lucky enough to call ourselves fans. If the Pats lose tonight, it’s likely over. Brady could leave. McDaniels could leave. Hell, Belichick could leave. But the memories will stay forever. Just like the glory of winning one final game in Foxborough. Because I know for damn sure the Tennessee Titans aren’t going to be the ones to end the dynasty. Over my dead body will this nothing franchise get the satisfaction of beating Tom Brady at home. This is the final stand, the climactic scene where the old soldiers know they’ve only got one more battle left in them. The Pats will win this game on pride, alone. You’ll have to wrestle the NFL crown out of their cold, dead hands, and no one’s been able to kill them, yet. Long live Brady. Long live Belichick. Pats by a thousand.

Pick: Pats -5

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8)

I appreciate the NFL dumping the two terrible NFC playoff games on the same day because now I get to pretend to ignore them. I mean, it’s Kirk Cousins going into the Dome in the playoffs. That’s the only information you need. This game’s already over.

Pick: Saints -8

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks’ bizarre inability to play in games decided by more than three points will keep this interesting, but the Eagles already got their Super Bowl. Winning the division with the most injuries in history (don’t fact check that) is kinda all they need. It would be typical of both the Seahawks and the Eagles if Philadelphia somehow won this game, prolonging America’s exposure to excruciating NFC East play that has surely done as much damage to this country as the housing market crash, but I don’t see it. Eventually, attrition and nanobubble concussion water win out in the end. It’s just the rule of life.

Pick: Seahawks -2.5

I totally didn’t forget about making picks this week when I went home for Christmas, I swear. There’s a zero percent chance that this got lost in the shuffle of long transit journeys, food, presents, and more food. Now that that’s established I have to confess that writing this escaped my mind briefly, so now I’m just gonna blow through this as quickly as possible since there’s only like, five games that mean anything, anyway. Pour one out for the 2019 regular season. What a ride.

What’s even going on this week? New Year’s, I guess. I could throw a resolution gimmick together, but my only resolution is to get better at picking games because striving for any other kind of change is just admitting weakness, which I’ll never do. I’m sure plenty of teams have funny New Year’s resolutions, but I’ll let someone with more time and a stronger work ethic break those down. I’m just gonna dump all my picks out, and if I have any thoughts, I’ll add them. Happy RGIII day.

All lines from Bovada.

• Tampa Bay Bucs (pick) over Atlanta Falcons (30-30-5,000 for Jameis let’s goooooooooo)
• Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Chicago Bears
• Cleveland Browns (-3) over Cincinnati Bengals (Browns have to end the year on a big win to get the excitement going for next season, it’s Fraud Hype Generating Team 101)
• Green Bay Packers (-12.5) over Detroit Lions
• Kansas City Chiefs (-9) over Los Angeles Chargers
• New England Patriots (-16) over Miami Dolphins (Pats are 100% back and anyone who says the Ravens and Chiefs aren’t scared is lying to themselves)
• New Orleans Saints (-13) over Carolina Panthers
• Buffalo Bills (-1) over New York Jets
• Arizona Cardinals (+6) over Los Angeles Rams
• Denver Broncos (-3.5) over Oakland Raiders
• New York Giants (+4) over Philadelphia Eagles (Trust me, this is how the NFC East works)
• Baltimore Ravens (+2) over Pittsburgh Steelers (RGIII)
• Tennessee Titans (-6) over Houston Texans (Assuming both the Pats and Chiefs win, the Texans have no reason to play anyone and the Titans are desperate)
• Dallas Cowboys (-12) over Washington Redskins (It’s funnier if they lose in the Wild Card Round)
• Indianapolis Colts (-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (This is the least relevant game of the 2019 NFL season)
• San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks (Too many injuries for Seattle. Don’t see how they’ll move the ball)

It hurt my soul to write out “week 15.” Seems so much worse when it’s sitting there in front of you. The season’s almost over, folks, and there’s still a ton left up in the air. One thing that’s decided already, though, is MVP. Lamar Jackson is one of the more obvious MVPs I can remember, and there’s a decent chance he’s unanimous. Just an amazing season that checks off all the boxes: record-breaking? Check. Best team in the league? Check. Most entertaining offense? Check. Add in that he seems like an awesome, beloved teammate and a decent person all-around and it’s a no-brainer. He’s even threatening to make me root for the Ravens, something I haven’t done since the early 2000s. Thank God Suggs isn’t there to ruin this. By the way, I’m allowed to enjoy Lamar’s success because I went on the record before the draft as being pro-Lamar and wanted him to be Brady’s heir apparent. I’m saved from the internet’s ire, at least today.

We’re really getting down to nut-cutting time, and a bunch of teams are staring destiny in the face. We’ve got some #clinchingscenarios on the line, and a ton of super irrelevant games. Should be fun!

All lines from Bovada.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4)

Let me make this clear: I want the Bears to win. I don’t think I’ve done a particularly good job of hiding my distaste for Aaron Rodgers over the years (I don’t hate him as much as he hates getting gifts from his family or attending grandparents’ funerals), so I’m sure it’s not shocking. And everything seems to favor the Bears, here. The Bears are Back, everyone’s been talking about how the Packers are a really shaky 2 seed, it’s the holidays so you know Rodgers has to spend all his time telling himself not to think about his family, literally everything is going against the Packers. But the Packers will win, because they always beat the Bears in Lambeau and they always beat the Bears when it would be most crushing for them. RIP Bears.

Pick: Packers -4

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers

Seahawks need this game, and, for their own psyche, need to win by a lot. Panthers have respectfully bowed out of this season for all non-McCafferey stat-padding purposes. Side note: did you know DJ Moore was fourth in the league in receiving yards? You do now.

Pick: Seahawks -7

New England Patriots (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals

Just to weigh in on this latest Patriots (hopefully) micro-scandal- I don’t really care. I don’t think normal people really care. The people who despise the Pats and base their entire existence on hating the Pats will obviously pounce and try to get Brady, Belichick, and Kraft executed and every draft pick until the end of time taken away, but that would have happened regardless. My thing is just be smarter. You’re never going to get the benefit of the doubt, particularly in this area. Don’t put yourself in this situation to begin with, and you won’t have the hyenas saying you have to cheat to beat the Bengals. Or maybe they got “caught” on purpose because they always rally together and win the Super Bowl when mired in controversy. In that case, carry on.

Pick: Pats -10

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

At this point in the season, it’s always safer to pick the team that’s playing for something against the team that isn’t. But, improbably, the Broncos are still alive for the playoffs. If they win out and every other team in the league loses all their games, they’re in. That quest ends this week, but they’ll at least keep it close.

Pick: Broncos +10

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5)

Nice.

Pick: Dolphins +3.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Washington Redskins

Sweet.

Pick: Eagles -5.5

Tampa Bay Bucs (-4) at Detroit Lions

Love it.

Pick: Bucs -4

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

I’ll tell you what I wouldn’t want to do if I were an AFC South team, and that’s go into Nashville for a must-win December game and try to contain Tannehill and Tractorcito. No one’s hotter than the Titans and no one’s more content to blow the division than the Texans. They already won their Super Bowl, so everything else is gravy. Mike Vrabel is never satisfied, and he’ll have the boys ready to win by a thousand.

Pick: Titans -3

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Pass.

Pick: Chargers -1.5

Cleveland Browns (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Sick.

Pick: Browns -3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Can’t get enough NFL football.

Pick: Raiders -6.5

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11)

Folks, I haven’t seen a massacre this bad since the last time I opened a box of Cheez-Its after 1 am.

Pick: 49ers -11

Los Angeles Rams (-2) at Dallas Cowboys

The Man wants me to talk about this game, but I refuse. I’m just a rebel.

Pick: Rams -2

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)

The Steelers have morphed into an even more Bills-y version of the Bills, and this Spider-Man meme game could be a possible bizarro-world first-round matchup if the Bills win. But they won’t, because you don’t beat Duck Hodges in Heinz Field at night. You just don’t, no matter how many fans go through tables during the tailgate. Pretty sure Buffalo people view going to Pittsburgh the same way a European person would view going to Monaco or Croatia.

Pick: Steelers -1

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-9)

It’d be a real shame if something happened and I wasn’t able to watch this game.

Pick: Saints -9

Folks, the Bears are back. Sure, they’re only back when they play below .500 teams, but they’re back nonetheless. I don’t know, man, I think I see it with Mitch. You do the draft over again and taking him over Mahomes and Watson seems like a no-brainer. Guy can run and only has five abominable throws a game. You can win with that. Combine it with a revolutionary mind like Matt Nagy and you’ve got a recipe for success. Bears could make some noise in the playoffs. All they need is to win out and hope that the Vikings, Packers, Niners, and Seahawks all forget to show up for all their games. Not too much to ask. Side note on the Cowboys- yikes. Is that Dak contract set in stone yet? Because, umm, yeah.

Special edition this week, I’m writing the picks while watching The Irishman. As someone who is both a man and Irish, this movie was made specifically for me. It’s in the title. As a challenge, I’m going to see if I can finish this before the three-and-a-half-hour run time expires (micro-rant: if you complain about the movie being too long because your brain had been transformed into 2019 phone brain and you can’t focus on anything for more than ten seconds, I hope you die. It’s a long movie, deal with it). Forgive any mob puns.

All lines from Bovada.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Me, watch this game? Fuggedaboutit! No, we have fun here.

Pick: Packers -13

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2)

I don’t know how the Niners got stuck with all these east coast gauntlet games at the same time, but they really pissed someone off in the league office. Don’t feel super confident about Jimmy G going into the Dome, if we’re being honest. Relevant Irishman tie-in: the de-aging technology on RDN looks fine, but he still moves like an old man. It’s weird. This applies to Drew Brees this season (and NOT to another old QB who will remain anonymous).

Pick: Saints -2

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9)

Broncos stink. And I think can all agree that the Texans are a juggernaut, right? Easily one of the best teams in history.

Pick: Texans -9

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-12.5)

Hate to say it, but it’s about time someone iced Matty Patricia. He’s about to get blown out by Kirk Cousins, and you just can’t let that happen.

Pick: Vikings -12.5

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Bucs (-3)

Pretty sure the Colts died last week. Jacboy’s not even close to healthy and Vinatieri’s cost them like five games at this point. They’re down on the mat. You can’t go into Tampa with a broken spirit and expect to contain Jameis. Just not gonna happen. He’ll hang 387 yards, 4 TDs, and 3 INTS on your head before you can blink.

Pick: Bucs -3

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

I will give this game the same amount of undivided attention I’m currently giving The Irishman. Which I think I’m like halfway through.

Pick: Panthers +3

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Buffalo Bills

Improbable at the beginning of the season, this game is actually crucial for the AFC East race. I’m really not used to having to sweat the division out, and I really don’t expect to, but the fact that the Bills are still hanging around is a testament to them. But the Ravens are gonna win, and I prefer it that way. Not getting the one seed sucks, but not winning the division would be humiliating. Another team can’t win the AFC East until two years after Brady retires.

Pick: Ravens -6.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7)

Bengals are the hottest team in the league, and the pushover crybaby Browns won’t be able to stand in their way. Shoutout to Baker’s army of imaginary haters, haven’t heard from them in a while.

Pick: Bengals +7

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)

Speaking of hot teams. Fitzmagic is officially in full effect, and there’s nothing the Jets can do to stop it. It was sad to see the Jets’ miracle run come to such an ignominious end, but it just opens the door for the Dolphins, who haven’t technically been eliminated from the playoffs, yet.

Pick: Dolphins +5.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I’ll tell you what, Big Bob De Niro is Back, although he’s decidedly not Irish. I think old guys are back, in general. De Niro, Pacino, Pesci, LeBron, definitely some others. Makes me optimistic about the Super Bowl this year. Unless 2020 is the year of not-old-guys, in which case I’m very nervous.

Pick: Jags +3

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)

I know it’s nonsensical, but the garbage time offense from last week really has me buying back in. Every pass is either to Edelman or James White, as it should be. Keep playing good D and you never know, right? Just have to get down just enough where teams stop really trying and they’re golden. God, just let me fast forward to a week after the inevitable playoff loss so I can avoid the molten-hot takes and grave dancing.

Pick: Pats -3

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

The Irishman just ended. Forgive me, it was very distracting. I couldn’t beat the clock, and for that, I apologize. I give it nine old man emojis. This game gets two old man emojis.

Pick: Steelers -3

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Oakland Raiders

Derrick Henry has only started 28 of 59 games in his career. Imagine starting another running back over him. I couldn’t. The Raiders are out on their feet, and one long TD run from Tractorcito will completely end their season. Scientists will be trying to figure out if the Titans are actually good for generations.

Pick: Titans -3

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Los Angeles Rams

In the Legion of Boom’s heyday, they would always lose one game to the Rams. It was random and inexplicable and easy to predict. It was always the week Johnny Hekker would break out the fake punts and the score would be like 11-6. Even though the Rams are better than they were then, they have less chance to win. They’re just too soft and the Seahawks are too good. Someone lure Sean McVay into a meeting in an empty house before putting a bullet in his head and cleaning up the evidence already.

Pick: Seahawks -1

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

Eli’s back, probably. Hooray.

Pick: Eagles -9.5

Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving. I know I did, dutifully watching three pretty bad games while not being in physical proximity to my family. Alas, such is the price I pay for my lavish big city lifestyle. At least I was able to avoid questions about why I’m still single and don’t have any kind of career to speak of. Unfortunately, I can’t run from this week’s terrible slate of games, salvaged only by Niners-Ravens and a possibly decent Sunday night-Monday night combo. Really wish they put the Ravens at 4:25, but oh, well, I guess. We got Jets-Bengals to look forward to.

All lines from Bovada.

Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants

Here’s something I’m thankful for: despite being miles away from my family on Thanksgiving, I know I was closer to mine than Aaron Rodgers is to his. Giants stink so they’ll get an easy win, but I wouldn’t feel too happy about this team if I was a cheesehead. Feels like an early playoff exit. What else is new for Rodgers, who fewer and fewer people are calling the GOAT these days?

Pick: Packers -7

San Fransisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Hell yes. The Niners are in the middle of an absurd stretch of games against really, really good teams, and getting out completely unscathed is a little unrealistic. Packers last week, now Ravens, Saints next week, then Seahawks in week 17 (Rams no longer count as competition). West coast team coming east for a 1 o’clock game plus Lamar being completely on fire means this is the one they drop. No shame, but they’d better win the rest of their games if they don’t want to get slapped in the face with a Wild Card appearance.

Pick: Ravens -6

Philadelphia Eagles (-10) at Miami Dolphins

This is a sad, sad game that no one needs to watch.

Pick: Dolphins +10

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Mason Rudolph revenge game that won’t feature Mason Rudolph, sweet! Did you know Myles Garrett hit him over the head with his own helmet a few weeks ago? If, for some reason, you watch more than three seconds of this game, you’ll be seeing the clip at least forty-five times, so don’t worry if you’re a little lost. Browns are in the middle of a classic “we finished the year hot but missed the playoffs, so let’s get the hype going for next year!” run, which is exactly what they did last year. And probably next year, and the year after that. Browns big.

Pick: Browns -2.5

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

I don’t care that the Titans are back, I don’t care that Ryan Tannehill is taking the next step not playing terribly, and I definitely don’t care that Derrick Henry is doing his annual routine of becoming the best running back in the league the last six weeks of the season. Titans just don’t beat the Colts. Ever.

Pick: Colts -2.5

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-10)

Yuck. Redskins predictably can’t even tank right. What are they doing winning games? Do they want Chase Young or not?

Pick: Panthers -10

New York Jets (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

I’m addicted to this Jets run. They’re so good now! Completely out of nowhere. That’s the power of a run the table guarantee when used correctly (i.e., when you play all the terrible teams on your schedule). I don’t see why the Jets can’t win out. You know, besides the fact that they’re the Jets.

Pick: Jets -3.5

Tampa Bay Bucs (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I’ll tell you something- Jags SSSSSSSSSSSTTTTIIIINNNNNKKKKKKKKKK. They’re horrible and they quit three months ago. Can’t wait to watch Jameis put up 408 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. Either Chris Godwin or Mike Evans will have 200+ yards receiving, and honestly, it might be both.

Pick: Bucs -1.5

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Rams are such a disgrace. I understand losing to the Patriots in a Super Bowl kills morale. Happened to the Falcons, happened to the Seahawks, will happen to whatever NFC team makes it this year. But to fall apart so completely one year after reinventing the NFL and getting a thousand new coaches hired simply because they knew Sean McVay like this is embarrassing. Have some pride. Stop sucking so much. Be less boring. Guarantee they lose again this week, even though I kind of forgot the Cardinals existed during their bye.

Pick: Cardinals +3

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

It’s time to talk about what’s actually important- Thanksgiving leftovers. There’s a growing swath of anti-turkey rhetoric online these days, but, if you ask me, it’s just typically anti-traditionalism for its own sake. Because if you remove turkey from the equation, you remove the best part (by far) of Thanksgiving leftovers. The post-TG turkey sandwich is what God had in mind when he created food. The turkey tastes 10,000,000 times better day two or three or four (if you’re lucky, day five and six). The mashed potatoes are probably the most versatile leftover in that simply heating them up isn’t the only available option. You can fry them up in little patties, maybe bake them in little patties, if you’re feeling adventurous you can use them as a spread for your sandwich, or simply heat them up with some gravy. Pretty much everything you just kind of have to eat them as-is unless you get really creative. So ends the discussion.

Pick: Broncos +3

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

You’re telling me Andy Reid is gonna lose coming off a bye the same week his appearance on Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives aired? Please. Chiefs by a zillion.

Pick: Chiefs -10

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Houston Texans

The Texans could beat the Pats five thousand consecutive times and I would never be worried about them.

Pick: Pats -3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

If, for some reason, I was in charge of making the lines, I probably would have made it Seahawks -4.5, so I’ll take the 3. Kirk Cousins already won a “big” game in primetime earlier this year. It won’t happen again.

Pick: Seahawks -3

This is a day late, yes. You want to fight about it? I didn’t think so. I’ll be honest, Colts-Texans was so exciting I passed out for an entire day. Just knocked me right out. My brain couldn’t live with the new information it learned Thursday night; that information being that both these teams are somehow destined to lose in the Saturday afternoon Wild Card game. The AFC shouldn’t even have playoffs, it should just be Pats-Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. “B-but what about the Chiefs?” Shut up. Chiefs stink, too. Every team stinks, which is just what the NFL wants.

Mixed bag this week, some really, really good games, some really, really bad ones. For those of you without access to calendars, Thanksgiving is next week, which means we’re getting dangerously close to Playoff Scenario Graphics. Cherish this moment, it’s the best time of year.

All lines from Bovada.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Am I missing something, here? The Seahawks are good and the Eagles are eh. Just about the only thing in the Birds’ favor is that Seattle is a west coast team coming east for a one o’clock game. Eagles’ season is on the line for the thousandth time this season, it’s time to put them down for good.

Pick: Seahawks +1

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6)

Puke city. There’s zero chance the Bears still play for Matt Nagy, right? That team wants nothing more than to quit on their dickhead coach. Giants win despite their best interests.

Pick: Giants +6

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10)

Do people realize that Mike Thomas is currently on pace to break the single-season record for receptions? Because he is. I’ve established my love of massive reception totals with minimal yardage, but Michael racks up absurd yardage along with his one-yard quick screens and isn’t particularly fast, quick, or athletic. It’s breaking my brain, but I embrace it. This game is a showcase of Mike Furrey All-Stars, with Mike, Kamara, and CMC all likely to get 10+ catches for under 100 yards, which, if the planets align, will protect my browsers from porn for the foreseeable future. I can’t figure either one of these teams out, but I know that Kyle Allen STINKS and that he’s not going into the Dome and winning.

Pick: Saints -10

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals

Distraction-free week for the Steelers, just what you want when facing such an inferior opponent. Just focus on the task at hand, no outside talk about various controversies, onfield or otherwise. What happened last week? I sustained head trauma after an opponent bopped me on the noggin with a helmet and I’m having trouble remembering. I certainly remember how bad the Bengals are, though.

Pick: Steelers -7

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

Now that we’re in #YearEndSalesEventSZN, it’s time someone asks the question- has anyone ever actually gotten a car for Christmas? Do they even manufacture bows big enough to put on the roofs? If you woke up on Christmas morning and didn’t have any presents under the tree, wouldn’t you be a little pissed? And then your idiot husband is like “Hey, look, honey, I bought you a new car!” “Dang, Carl, thanks! What’d you do with the old one?” “Well, I sold it and all our other possessions so I could afford to buy this new car upfront since I didn’t find their financing options attractive enough.” “Sick.” What a terrible and impractical gift to give someone. If I got a car for Christmas, I feel like the whole time during the maiden voyage (which someone else technically did, because how else would it have gotten to you?) I’d just be thinking about how much I would have rather just gotten a new sweatshirt or something.

Pick: Lions -3.5

Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

I know the Falcons are back and the Bucs are the opposite of back, but I’ll never take the Falcons. Not after I watched them blow a 28-3 lead in the third quarter of the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots.

Pick: Bucs +4

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)

This can go one of two ways for the Browns: they can rally behind the loss of their best player, come together, and salvage the season by going on a surprise win streak. Or, they can, you know, be the Browns and lose to the Dolphins.

Pick: Dolphins +10.5

Oakland Raiders (-3) at New York Jets

I know I spat in the face of the rule ten seconds ago, but never pick a west coast team coming east for an early game. Especially not when the Jets are hot and have a Run The Table guarantee in play.

Pick: Jets +3

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4)

I don’t know, man. Let me know how this one ends.

Pick: Broncos +4

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tenessee Titans (-3.5)

There are diehard Jags and Titans fans out there. Legitimately. Imagine being one of those people. Imagine convincing yourself that either of these teams will be anything other than an irrelevant also-ran. Like, imagine being the Titans fan that’s like, “yeah, this is the year we’re gonna beat the Patriots and go all the way!” I can’t. I can’t imagine living such a pathetic life, and my life is about as pathetic as it gets. You can keep this game if it’s not Color Rush.

Pick: Titans -3.5

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)

I’m so secretly-not-that-confident about this game that I couldn’t be more confident. The Cowboys are a different animal obviously, but the last time the Pats faced an actually good offense it went… not great. Cowboys can rush the passer and theoretically run the ball down their gullet. But, like, come on. Have you watched Zeke this year? He stinks. I’ll bet my life that 1,000-year-old Randall Cobb and Mike Gallup don’t do anything too crazy. Pats can’t block anyone, but they haven’t blocked anyone all year and are 9-1. It’s Jason Garret vs. Bill Belichick. I really should have just said that and saved myself an entire pointless paragraph.

Pick: Pats -6.5

Green Bay Packers at San Fransisco 49ers (-3)

I know I’m obviously making it up, but I feel like they already played this year. Maybe I’m just caught up in the NFL 100 festivities and am just seeing old Packers and Niners highlights wherever I look. I’m seeing T.O., Dorsey Levins for some reason, another guy whose name I’m forgetting but he had 181 yards rushing while also throwing for 263 yards in the same playoff game. Classic helmet matchup; just feels like January. I tell you what, though, I’m stumped. Jimmy G’s been dying to cost them a game or two with a backbreaking pick late in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers is dying to throw a tantrum on his team after they cost him a game late in the fourth quarter. Niners are better, so might as well just pick them.

Pick: Niners -3

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Pats murdered the Rams, who are now in one of the more hopeless cap situations in the NFL. They’re about to get steamrolled.

Pick: Ravens -3.5