Category: Football

Apologies to anyone riding Chiefs -3. The refs did all they could, but even they couldn’t stop the inexorable death march. It wasn’t exactly a crushing defeat, since I think everyone on earth saw it coming when the Chiefs didn’t score on their last two drives in the fourth quarter, but still. Maybe if the Chiefs caught some of the thousand deflected passes at the goal line and didn’t take timeouts to bail out the scrambling Raiders they could have hung on, but whatever. Maybe if Alex “Jeff George” Smith didn’t clam up at the end and kept going deep against the worst secondary ever things might have been different. No, I didn’t have the Chiefs, why do you ask. As I’ve said before, my picks are trash on Thursday, but they’re cash money on Sunday and Monday. Luckily for you, Thursday already happened. Lines from Bovada.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers

I find myself overthinking these scenarios almost every time. Aaron Rodgers is out. Brett Hundley looked something less than good in relief last week. Saints have been playing better defense lately, insofar as they’ve actually fielded eleven NFL defensive players, and their pass rush has been hot. Packers o-line is banged up. This is the most obvious game ever. But I just can’t shake this feeling in my gut. It’s in Lambeau. Saints were trying really hard to blow a 45 point lead against the Lions. The NFL is stupid. I fully expect the Packers to win. Which makes me want to go against my instincts because it’s so obviously wrong. But then I get so sure of the Saints that will cover that I flip flop again. It’s an inescapable vortex of indecision that will somehow spit out a correct pick. Or an incorrect one.

Pick: Packers +4.5

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears

Bears have covered every single home game. That’s a fact. No one switches from hot to cold to hot quite as quickly or extremely like the Panthers, and they got embarrassed by the Eagles last Thursday. You don’t come into Soldier Field on at noon on a Sunday (I can figure out timezones, NBD) and get an easy win if you’re struggling. Not with Trubisky under center.

Pick: Bears +3

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Did you know the Vikings would have a bye if the playoffs started today? I bet you didn’t. That’s what happens when such a dynamic playmaker is leading the offense. Case Keenum refuses to be contained, putting up adequate numbers every week proving the h8trz wrong. Ravens are just terrible, which makes me very happy. The Color Purple is wasted on them.

Pick: Vikings -5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The fact that this the Jags are only a 3.5 point favorite smells like the biggest mousetrap in history. I flat out refuse to take the cheese.

Pick: Colts +3.5

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)

AFC East. Catch the fever!

Pick: *closes eyes and jumps* Jets +3

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

You know what they say, “never trust a West Coast team coming east for a 1 o’clock start.” But what if they’re playing another West Coast team going east for a 1 o’clock start? And what if they’re going so far east they left the country? And what if they’re not playing at 9:30 am or in Wembley? Will a rugby stadium add some toughness to both teams? Or make everyone play scared lest they get hurt and get shamed by the rugby crowd? Why does the NFL think anyone overseas cares? Is Adrian Peterson Back or was last week just a final stand, double barrel middle finger to the Saints? Will Carson Palmer survive this encounter with Aaron Donald? Is there any end to the questions, or is this Cardinals-Rams game the kind of provocative, interesting game that will keep the national discussion going nonstop? I’m going to assume no on that one.

Pick: Rams -3.5

Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cleveland Browns

Wednesday night I went to the Celtics home opener against the Bucks. When I got the tickets, I thought it’d be awesome to be there the first time the new-look Celtics took the Parquet Floor. It didn’t go according to plan. And they lost. Anyway, on the way home from Boston I have to (I don’t really have to, but it’s the fastest way) take the same highway I took at the back half of my drive from my home in Vermont to UConn back when I had some optimism in my future when I was a student. As I approached the exit, I figured what the hell why not go through campus again, maybe get some food from one of my old haunts. So I did. It was a mistake. The huge, multi-million dollar plaza they started building my senior year was done, and it not only looked amazing but also had a ton of stuff I would have liked to have when I was around. Coupled with the countless happy young people who would sniff my old ass out in a second if I ever tried to party with them and it made me pretty depressed. I was low, so I needed something I could rely on. I stopped at my favorite place on campus, Wally’s Chicken Coop. I not only got lunch, but I took some home for dinner, too. It was a short-lived moment of bliss, eating a chicken-nugget-based diet once again. But then this morning, my body reminded me I was no longer in college and probably shouldn’t eat like that anymore. I was on campus for at most 20 minutes and it made me more depressed and downtrodden than anything I’ve done since I graduated. Don’t know if it’s possible to be lower. Oh, wait, yes I do. I could be a Browns fan!

Pick: Titans -6

Tampa Bay Bucs at Buffalo Bills

Do they just not make lines for Bucs games anymore? Do they really think Jameis isn’t going to play? He literally said he’s playing. Whatever, I probably wouldn’t have taken them, anyway. I’m not standing in front of the pre-week 9 Bills train.

Pick: Bills -whatever

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at San Francisco 49ers

Niners are allergic to doing anything but lose in heartbreaking fashion. Ezekiel Elliot is allergic to getting suspended. Something has to give.

Pick: 49ers +6

Seattle Seahawks (-5) at New York Giants

Don’t let the Giants get hot! Seriously, though, please don’t let the Giants get hot.

Pick: Seahawks -5

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

It’s gotten lost in the monsoon of Dalton jokes, but the Bengals have won two straight and have allowed the second fewest points in the AFC. Bengals D is legit and is going to keep this game close. They won’t win. The Bengals have a mental block that prevents them from A) beating the Steelers and B) winning a game that starts after 1pm, but they won’t get blown out.

Pick: Bengals +5

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3.5)

The spread for this should really be Pats -1000. Falcons lost to the Bills. Falcons blew a 17 point lead and lost to the Dolphins. They can’t beat the AFC East. And now they’re facing the boogeyman that gave them their crippling fear of holding on to big leads? In the belly of the beast? Falcons could be up 56-0 at the half and I’d still be positive the Pats were covering. The Falcons are the softest team I’ve ever seen. Atlanta is the softest city I’ve ever seen. The Patriots own Atlanta. Tom Brady owns Atlanta. I own Atlanta. There’s a better chance of Boo 2! winning the Oscar for Best Picture than the Falcons doing anything other than puking and pooping all over themselves the second the Pats come out of the tunnel.

Pick: Pats -3.5

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Been way too long since there’s been an NFC East division game on national TV, feels good. Eagles have the best point differential in the NFC, and third highest in the league (behind only the Chiefs and…..Jaguars???). Their offense has been smashing people left and right. But the Skins D has been better than a lot of people (me) thought coming into the season, and they have the offensive firepower to hang with the Birds if they go off. This might end up being a fight to the death, and the Eagles may have to forcibly rip every blade of grass they gain from the Redskins’ hands. Or the Eagles will just roll again, but we’re talking about Philly, here.

Pick Redskins +4.5

Bonus College Picks

• Louisville at Florida State Over 59
• Maryland at Wisconsin -24.5
• Oklahoma State -7 at Texas
• Purdue -9.5 at Rutgers
• Oregon at UCLA Over 67

Eastern Conference

Just gonna jump right into the West after using all of my preamble capacity introducing the East. This is going to be considerably less bleak, since the West has more than four good teams.

Golden State Warriors– I know I’ve become known for coming with some strong, unpopular takes, but I think this one might take the cake: the Warriors are the best team in the league.

Over/Under 67.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing the legend Nick Young

Burning Question: Is my Twitter account real, or am I just another Kevin Durant burner account?

Bold Prediction: I think it’d be bolder to say they won’t win the title

 

Houston Rockets– What would happen if you took a clone of Steve Nash and put him on the 2005 Suns, giving them two Steve Nashes to run the Mike D’Antoni system? We’re about to find out! The Rockets made major waves in the offseason by trading the majority of their bench for Chris Paul, who plays the same role in an offense as James Harden, who just had his second second-place MVP finish in three years. Bold strategy, but it might pay off. Even though at this stage in their careers Harden is the better player, Paul certainly has more point guard bona fides, and will likely handle most of the ball handling duty, lest Harden wants to deal with a CP3 temper tantrum on a nightly basis. Moving off the ball might put Harden back in his OKC mindset, where he was just a heat-check scorer-playmaker that would take over games in the fourth. If Harden just becomes a catch-and-shoot, slashing, quick-decision-and-not-just-dribbling-the-ball-for-23-seconds-before-shooting scoring two guard, he might lead the league in scoring. Regardless, I give it 3 weeks before Chris Paul is screaming at Harden during games.

Over/Under 54.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Trading for Chris Paul

Burning Question: Will Chris Paul be invited to the club after they lose second round?

Bold Prediction: They’ll set a record for most 3s attempted in a season by the All Star break

 

San Antonio Spurs– At this point, I think people respect Popovich and the system more than the actual team. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is a basketball cyborg that seemingly doesn’t have any kind of built-in ceiling, but the rest of the roster is kind of meh. Manu and Tony Parker are on their last legs’ last legs. LaMarcus Aldridge became bad sometime last season, and Pau doesn’t offer much besides smart passing and a skilled shooting touch anymore. Then the role players are just that- a bunch of role players that aren’t particularly different from anyone else’s. Leonard is the only outlier on this roster, but the coaching is so good and the players have such great chemistry and continuity that they’ll still bludgeon weaker, unorganized teams and keep it close against the giants of the West. But I don’t know if there’s enough here to go over-the-top. It hasn’t happened yet, but I’m assuming this Spurs team has a very post-Brady-but-not-post-Belichick Patriots feel to it.

Over/Under 53.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing Rudy Gay

Burning Question: Did Tim Duncan give all of his Old Navy chique wardrobe to Kawhi when he retired?

Bold Prediction: They’ll sit their starters in a TNT game at some point and get the player rest convo going again

 

Oklahoma City Thunder– I’m pretty sure these win totals might have come out before the Carmelo Anthony trade, because this feels low for them. In one of the greatest displays of general managing/blackmail in NBA history, the Thunder turned all of their bad bench players into Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Not sure if they were holding Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard’s family hostage or something, but picking on the inept Knicks like that should result in some kind of penalty. It’s just not fair for everyone else in the league.

The thought process behind all these moves and the hype surrounding them is pretty simple. Last year, Russell Westbrook was literally the only person on the team, and now he’s got two proven, explosive scorers flanking him. The organization and media will point to the huge extension Westbrook just signed and say “this is because the team showed him they were committed to winning,” but, in reality, Westbrook had no choice whatsoever after the display of pettiness and hatred he showed towards Kevin Durant after he left. The Thunder could have drafted me and said I was playing 40 minutes a game and Westbrook would have signed with a smile on his face (even if he’s dying inside). My biggest concern for this team is can they put the toothpaste back in the tube? They unleashed and unshackled Westbrook last season, allowing him to do anything he wanted on the court whenever he wanted. He shot at will and completely dominated the ball out of necessity, but can he turn it down a little? We all know Melo doesn’t like sharing the spotlight, so I can’t imagine he’ll be super happy if he becomes a higher paid version of Anthony Morrow. Paul George will likely be the de facto backup point guard, but giving him 8 minutes a game when Westbrook is on the bench to spread his wings doesn’t sound like the way to keep him from leaving after this year. I just think Westbrook is going to be Westbrook, shoot the ball a billion times a game including everything even resembling a “clutch” shot, alienate his fancy new teammates by being so intense and never giving them the ball, then play the same woe-is-me, I’m-so-tough-and-loyal-for-sticking-around-unlike-those-pussies-that-skipped-town card that he’s used non-stop since KD left. They also have no bench.

Over/Under 52.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Getting PG and Melo

Burning Question: If you really think about it, what’s the point of any of these West teams trying, anyway?

Bold Prediction: At some point in mid-March, Melo’s feet will fully fuse with the court as he stands in the corner all game

 

Minnesota Timberwolves– The Wolves are kind of the West version of the Sixers, in that they’re a popular pick to take a big step forward and everyone desperately wants them to be good. And, like with the Sixers, I’m not really all the way in, but at the least the T’Wolves have at least one player who’s proven that he can both play 82 games and play actual defense in all of them in new addition Jimmy Butler. Everyone knows (I just kind of assume everyone remembers every take I’ve ever had) I didn’t want the Celtics to give up everything to get Butler, but that’s mostly because he would have been the Celtics primary option on offense. He won’t be, here. Karl-Anthony Towns could legitimately be the best offensive player in the NBA, and it’s going to seem awfully nonsensical in a couple years that he didn’t make an All-Star team or All NBA team his first two years after he reels of 10 straight. There’s literally nothing he can’t do on the court that the laws of physics and his own massive body prevent him from doing (except playing defense). I don’t even know how he can get better, but I know he can. Andrew Wiggins seemed like the perfect complimentary piece, but Jimmy Butler plays the same position and has the exact same game. And because they got Jimmy Butler, they felt like they had to trade Ricky Rubio, who has become a true unicorn in the era of unicorns: a legitimately underrated NBA player. Now they have Jeff Teague running the point, and I really hope they don’t sincerely think Teague’s leading them to the Promised Land. This team kind of feels like it was cooking along low and slow in the smoker, maturing and progressing at their own, natural pace, but then Tom Thibodeau took it out and threw it in the microwave for some instant results. I’m worried Towns is going to get stuck in the same vortex of mediocrity Kevin Garnett was in when he was in Minnesota. Being the five or six seed and losing first round every year isn’t helping anybody.

Over/Under 46.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Trading for Jimmy Butler

Burning Question: How furious is Jimmy Butler that he couldn’t have been traded to Miami or somewhere where it isn’t terrible in winter?

Bold Prediction: They’ll have the number 20 pick in the draft for the next five years

 

Denver Nuggets– Gotta say, I’m not a fan of the Nuggets going primarily navy blue in their updated jerseys. The light blue was prime time. No one tunes into some Nuggets action looking for some navy blue jerseys (unless it’s the Melo-era alternates, which were awesome) (Speaking of Melo-era Nuggets: the Nuggets from when Allen Iverson got there until Melo left were legitimately some of my favorite teams ever. Everything was fast paced but also 100% isolation-based. There wasn’t Al-Harrington-Don-Nelson era Warriors level of reckless jacking by anyone who touched the ball (another one of my favorite teams ever), but they got some shots up. My favorite thing about them that I think only I ever noticed was that every game they would switch the colors of their accessories. My favorite looks were when they went white jerseys with light blue headbands/sleeves and when they went light blue jerseys with yellow headbands/sleeves. Navy alternates with yellow headbands/sleeves was also a good look. Light blue jerseys with whit headbands/sleeves was an underrated look, but I’m glad they didn’t go to it too often. I also miss the hanging Pepsi globe they used to have). At least the yellow alternates look good.

Anyway, the Nuggets are going to be really fun to watch. Their games are pretty much just first to 150 wins, so don’t expect them to be playing that lockdown, championship level defense come the playoffs.

Over/Under 43.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Getting Paul Millsap

Burning Question: Has the Denver Airport recovered since I left?

Bold Prediction: They’ll lead the league in both scoring and points allowed

 

Los Angeles Clippers– After years of hating the entire Lob City experience (Chris Paul, the flopping, the bitching, Chris Paul, the constant yelling at refs, Chris Paul, the playoff collapses, Chris Paul), I find myself kind of liking (at least the idea of) this new Chris Paul-less Clippers. Maybe it’s just because they now have Danilo Gallinari, may favorite NBA player (I don’t know why, either). Maybe it’s because they don’t have Chris Paul (my second least favorite NBA player). Either way, I’m kind of excited for this team. I’m ready for a huge Blake Griffin season and am fully invested in Milos Teodosic, who could easily supplant Gallo as my favorite player if he keeps firing no look passes for no reason other than the fact that he can. Unfortunately Doc Rivers is still the coach, which means Austin Rivers (who actually is kind of decent now) will play the whole game. If they can finally get Doc out of there, the Clippers might have something going.

Over/Under 42.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Getting rid of Chris Paul

Burning Question: How will DeAndre Jordan get any State Farm commercials without CP3?

Bold Prediction: Milos will average 15 assists per game in November until everyone just puts some freak athlete on him and ruins the fun

 

Portland Trail Blazers– The only potential playoff team in the West to pretty much come back with the same roster as last season (partly due to their brutal cap situation), the Trail Blazers are pretty much just going to be exactly what they were last year (difficult logic, I know). I have a soft spot for high scoring, high volume backcourt duos, so the Lillard-McCollum tag team is right up my alley. The only problem is they don’t have much else. Sure, Jusuf Nurkic plays an important role in the NBA’s underground crime syndicate, but he’s kind of just a big chunk of meat. There’s no real reliable third scoring option or second unit ballhandler, and they might have the worst backcourt defense in the league. If they make the playoffs, they won’t be there for long.

Over/Under 40.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Nothing

Burning Question: Did you know Portland was weird? You rarely hear about it

Bold Prediction: One game they’ll try to have Lillard or McCollum take every single shot

 

New Orleans Pelicans– Last season’s mad science experiment of acquiring DeMarcus Cousins to play next to Anthony Davis in a league obsessed with going small yielded pretty uneven results. The ‘Cans went 7-10 with Cousins in the lineup, but now they’ve had a full offseason to jell. They can learn each other’s tendencies, work out positioning, build up passing and (possible?) pick and roll chemistry, and get ready to dominate teams on the interior. A few issues: Anthony Davis is always nicked up. He misses games left and right every season and is dangerously close to “Mr. Glass” territory. DeMarcus doesn’t have the best reputation when it comes to team chemistry and willingness to be coached, and is always liable to get suspended. They also don’t have anything besides those two. I may count Jordan Crawford isos as reliable offense, but I think I’m in the minority. If either one goes down or if it just doesn’t work this team is absolutely done. Cousins is a free agent after this year, too, so if things aren’t going to plan he might get traded once again.

Over/Under 40.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Signing (gulp) Rajon Rondo

Burning Question: Can we get J.R. Smith back in the Big Easy?

Bold Prediction: Everyone’s getting traded

 

Utah Jazz– Think the Jazz are the only West team to get this distinction, but Utah has been given the Official Brian’s Den Seal of Anti-Approval. Do not watch this team play basketball if you don’t share my unhealthy love of missed shots, shot clock violations, bad spacing, and turnovers. They’ll play stifling defense, sure, but that only adds to their inherent unwatchability. I just don’t know where the scoring is coming from since Gordon Hayward left Utah’s warm embrace (how could he?). The only saving grace will be Ricky Rubio (who I love) running some pick and roll with Rudy Gobert, who has a legitimate chance at Defensive Player of the Year. Barring a scoring explosion from Joe Ingles (can’t rule it out), Jazz will be sippin’ milk at home as the watch the playoffs.

Over/Under 38.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Getting Rubio

Burning Question: Can Joseph Smith rise like a phoenix from the ashes of the burned Hayward jerseys?

Bold Prediction: Every big time free agent from now until forever will always choose to leave Utah

 

Memphis Grizzlies– Sad times in Memphis. Sad times indeed. A true end of an era. Grit ‘N’ Grind, gone but never forgotten. Without Z-Bo and Tony Allen, the Grizzlies’ well forged identity is gone. Sure, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol remain, but they’re not necessarily Grit ‘N’ Grind, they’re just really good players. And now without their spiritual rudder, the Grizzlies’ ship may go adrift in the rough waters of the Western Conference. Everyone on the roster outside of Conley and Gasol is either always hurt, young and unproven, or old and proven to be bad. There’s really not a lot to like and there doesn’t seem to be much of an identity. I love Marc Gasol. He’s one of my absolute favorite players to watch in the league. But he’s not a guy who’s going to drag his teammates up to his level and force them to win games. Conley is a bit, but he won’t be enough to keep them out of the lottery. Possibly the high lottery.

Over/Under 38.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Getting Tyreke Evans (yikes)

Burning Question: Can we please just get Tony Allen back on the team?

Bold Prediction: Marc Gasol will be sad all season, which will make me sad

 

Dallas Mavericks– There’s too much blue in the NBA. That’s my take. Too many teams with some shade of blue as their primary color. Time to switch it up a bit.

Anyway, Dirk is one of my favorite player ever (is it bad that I keep listing all these white guys as my favorite players? I think I’ll just avoid talking about who I like from now on), so seeing him finish out his career on bum teams is a real downer. Hopefully him and Dennis Smith, Jr. can roast some people offensively, because I’m not sure if this team is going to stop anybody all season. Rick Carlisle should help them win more games than they should, though.

Over/Under 35.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Finally resigning Nerlens Noel after a bizarre contract negotiation

Burning Question: If they fail to make the playoffs again, will that be the reason that Mark Cuban is out? (A little Shark Tank joke because I give the people what they ask for)

Bold Prediction: Dirk will win All Star game MVP in my dreams

 

Los Angeles Lakers– Did you guys know that Lonzo Ball has that special passing gene that infects the whole team? Did you know he brings a special energy that lifts the team and will likely be enough to win the title this year? Did you know Lonzo is not only the best point guard in the NBA, but is also the best coach, and, soon enough, will be the best GM? If you didn’t, you’ll find out soon! Get ready to get hit in the head with the Lonzo-is-God storyline every time the Lakers win (or come close to winning) a game. It’s going to completely siphon all the fun out of the Ball family, and somehow it isn’t Lavar’s doing. Just the side effect of being on the Lakers/Yankees/Cowboys/Knicks. If you show any sign of promise whatsoever you’re the second coming automatically. How do you think we would up as Lonzo and Kyle Kuzma as the two favorites for MVP?

If you couldn’t tell, I don’t like the Lakers, and now I’m doubly rooting against them now that the Celtics get their pick if it falls between 2 and 5. Everyone always wants them to be good, but I’m fine with them being shitty, and they’re going to be shitty again this year, #sorrynotsorry. If Lonzo is afraid to play against De’Aaron Fox, what’s he going to do when Russell Westbrook comes to town?

Over/Under 32.5 Wins: Please Under

Key Offseason Move: Drafting Lavar Ball

Burning Question: Did you know Lonzo has a rare passing skill?

Bold Prediction: Lonzo will post the worst defensive rating of all time

 

Sacramento Kings– Kings are going to be terrible, but they’re going to be fun and terrible. I was about to say I like that they committed to just going young until I remembered they signing Zach Randolph and Vince Carter, who was born in 1977! And is still in the NBA! Crazy. I hope they don’t play those guys and George Hill too much, because I just want as much De’Aaron Fox as possible. I’m still on the Buddy Hield bandwagon, and the Labissiere-Cauley-Stein duo is Jay Bilas’s wet dream.

Over/Under 29 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Getting George Hill

Burning Question: Is Sleep Train Arena the worst stadium name in history?

Bold Prediction: They’ll make a blockbuster move for malcontent and free-agent-to-be DeMarcus Cousins

 

Phoenix Suns– Someone needs to tell the purple teams it’s okay to have good teams. Sick of such a noble color being dragged down by these crappy teams.

Suns are trash. Devin Booker is good, but he’s not especially enjoyable to watch. Eric Bledsoe is good but fragile. Tyson Chandler is ollllllllllllllllllld. Everyone else is like 16.

Over/Under 28.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: ???

Burning Question: Why do they keep forcing weird black jerseys on us?

Bold Prediction: They’ll somehow get screwed in the lottery again

Gonna be a great season. Can’t wait.

Boy, it’s a good thing I don’t publish my Thursday Night picks, because Color Rush is really messing with me this season. Here I was, thinking a flaming-hot Cam Newton could turn a banged-up Eagles defense into smoldering rubble while the excellent Panthers D put the clamps on Carson Wentz and the boyz. Turns out Cam sucks and the Panthers can’t really stop anyone when Luke Kuechly dies on the field (maybe for real this time). That’s just the beauty of Color Rush, though. What’s fair is foul, what’s foul is fair, Philly is winning big games. The world turns upside down on Thursday Night. Luckily for all of you, I’m roughly 100-0 for non-Color Rush games this season. Lines from Bovada.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings

Can’t wait to watch the number 4 quarterback in Total QBR toss the pigskin around, gonna be great. What’s that? No, not Aaron Rodgers. Case Keenum! Reason number 10982347 the NFL is stupid: Case Keenum, who had started 24 games before this year and was bad in pretty much all of them, is now playing well because…..why? Are teams not prepared for him? Is the coaching so bad that the injection of known wildcard Case Keenum really enough to ruin gameplans? I’m sure he’ll light up the Packers because the Packers defense is horrible, but we all know how this is gonna go. I’m already seeing the Jordy Nelson out route in the corner of the end zone with 7 seconds left.

Pick: Packers -3

New England Patriots (-10) at New York Jets

Pats defense stinks! The can’t protect Brady at all! Patriots are done! Jets are on fire! Who can stop McCown? Forget number one pick, can the Jets make the playoffs? (BTW, I totally called this)

Pick: Pats -10

San Fransisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-11)

You know what they say, throw out the record books when Pierre Garçon comes back to his former stadiums. I’ll just say this- this game might be bad enough to get the name conversation going again: with the ever-increasing wage gap and the growing value of gold, is it time to change the 49ers name so people don’t feel bad about their current wealth status? Tough to say.

Pick: 49ers +11

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Ohhhhhh my godddddddddddddd my eyes are already bleeding thinking about this game. You know what? I’m going to further the cause, here. I vow not to watch every second of this game to stand (kneel?) in solidarity with the various protests centered around NFL games.

Pick: Ravens -7

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Did you know the Saints have allowed the fewest points in the NFC? Crazy, right? Talk about an unexpected development! Wait, what’s that? Only the Bucs, Colts, and Pats have allowed more yards? So it’s probably fools gold propped up by playing the Dolphins? And that even a team as anemic as the Lions could light them up if they feel like showing up? Yeah, this is gonna be a track meet.

Pick: Lions +4

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-13)

Pick: Falcons -13

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10)

Imagine an old whaling ship that’s filled to the brim with barrels and barrels of whale oil, but they got greedy and speared another huge sperm whale, then hauled the big carcass onboard in chunks, only during the process of turning the blubber into oil, something caught fire, then all of a sudden all the barrels explode as the ship and carcass catch fire, creating a giant tower of black smoke and a huge, corrosive smudge of oil and death on the ocean. Combine that smell with the garbage on New York City streets and you have the Browns.

Pick; Texans -10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) at Arizona Cardinals

Hey, it’s Carson Palmer vs. Younger Carson Palmer! Or is it Jameis Winston vs. Older Jameis Winston? Either way, expect a lot of passing yards, a lot of bad sacks, a lot of turnovers, and some missed kicks. Since it’s not in Tampa, there’s no chance for the weather delay needed for Bucs Bingo. I’m anti-Cardinals because I think they’re secretly the worst team to watch in the league, so I’ll go Bucs.

Pick: Bucs -2

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

God, I’m sick of these matchups. Every year, the NFL somehow rigs the scheduling so the absolute dregs of the league play against the worst division in the other conference, and we get stuck with the 3-2 Rams and the 3-2 Jags? They both actually look good? Jags defense is finally looking dominant after years of building up promise? The Rams have a coach that understands basic offensive strategy and it’s turned them into a somewhat viable contended overnight? Weird how smart decision making can make teams good. The rest of the NFL should try it sometime. For as good as both teams look on paper, this game is going to look just as bad. I can envision Leonard Fournette being assimilated into the cosmic entity known as Aaron Donald sometime during the third quarter, with Blake Bortles soon following. Jared Goff’s looked good, but outside Seattle they’ve pretty much exclusively played against bad defenses, so pardon me if I’m not expecting much out of him. This is gonna be ugly, physical, low scoring, and a game most people would soon like to forget (and, if they’re an actual player, they soon will!).

Pick: Rams +2.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

There’s no spread on this game because apparently Derek Carr is attempting to play with a broken spine, which is sure to end well. If he does play, he’ll be seriously hampered, and, don’t tell anyone, but he’s been really really stinky this season, and I don’t think Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram particularly care if the quarterback their demolishing is hurt or not. Raiders defense is ass, and the Chargers quietly have one the better offenses in the league (o-line notwithstanding). Plus, there’s some concern over the air quality with the wildfires in Northern California, and the mayor of San Diego said he’s willing to host the game, which would be amaaaaaaaaazing and so so awkward and I want it to happen so bad.

Pick: Chargers +whatever

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Please, tell me again how the Steelers are the biggest competition to the Pats. Please tell me about how no one can dream of stopping their offense or scoring on them. I’ll wait. I’ve got all day. Go ahead, make the case. Tell me why I should pick a horrible Steelers team with the worst chemistry of all time going on the road, where they STINK, to the second toughest place to play in the league against the last undefeated team. You can’t.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-12)

Is this really the best we could get on Sunday night?

Pick: Giants +12

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Another game with no spread because of injuries, this game will either become a complete massacre or an unwatchable slog depending on whether or not Marcus Mariota plays. I’m praying he doesn’t, so we can get the highly coveted Former Brady Backup matchup in Jacoby Brissett vs. Matt Cassell.

Pick: Titans/nobody

Bonus College Picks

• Washington State -17 at Cal
• TCU at Kansas State Over 50
• Oklahoma vs Texas +9
• Auburn -7.5 at LSU
• Ohio State -24.5 at Nebraska

Super Bonus MLB Championship Series Preview

I didn’t really feel like making a separate post for this, mostly because clearly everything I thought I knew was completely shattered by the events of the Division Series. On paper, these are two awesome matchups that should produce long, even series full of drama, twists, turns, and excitement. Or my nightmare will become reality. Who knows?

American League

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

We get it, the Yankees are going to win the World Series. Cool. Someone put a bullet in my brain.

Pick: Yankees in 4

National League

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

A rematch of last year’s NLCS, both teams are coming in to this in pretty opposite positions as last year. The Dodgers spent the majority of the season as prohibitive favorite, had a bad month or two, then blasted their first round opponent. Sound like any team you remember? Then the Cubs, somehow overlooked after the most heavily publicized championship ever, had a forgettably good regular season then grinded out a brutal Division Series against the Nats where they looked downright bad at times. Sounds like last year’s Dodgers. What I’m saying is I expect the Dodgers to win, much like the Cubs won last year.

Pick: Dodgers in 6

I know what you’re all thinking. “Where were the picks yesterday? Even though they’ve only been going on for two weeks, they’ve become a vital part of my Friday afternoon, and I feel lost without them.” It’s true, I failed to post this yesterday. I would apologize, but I think once you see what I was doing yesterday, you’ll be thanking me. Still, I couldn’t just not put my rock-solid picks out there. However, since it’s Saturday morning and I don’t really feel like it, and because these games are all terrible, I’m skipping the write-ups and just giving the picks. Some of you may find this preferable, but please keep those opinions to yourself.

• Bills +3 at Bengals
• Chargers +3.5 at Giants
• Titans if Mariota plays at Dolphins, no one if he doesn’t
• 49ers +1.5 at Colts
• Panthers +3 at Lions
• Cardinals +6.5 at Eagles
• Jaguars at Steelers -8
• Jets -1 at Browns
• Seahawks at Rams -1.5
• Ravens +3 at Raiders
• Packers +2 at Cowboys
• Chiefs (pick) at Texans
• Vikings at Bears +3

Bonus College Picks

• Iowa State at Oklahoma Over 62
• Miami (FL) -3.5 at Florida State
• West Virginia at TCU Over 68
• Minnesota +3.5 at Purdue
• Washington State -3 at Oregon

After a thrilling week 3 that featured countless crazy finishes and very unexpected results, we returned to normal with a predictable Packers blowout of the Bears in Lambeau, where I think the Bears are 0 for their last 1,000. Was that just typical Aaron Rodgers destruction or a sign of things to come for this week. Sure hope it’s the former, but now that the NFL has captured everyone’s imagination again, I’m thinking this week is gonna STINK. Either way, it’s my responsibility to give you the most reliable, accurate picks you can find anywhere on the Internet. I didn’t keep track of what my record was last week, because like any good quarterback or defensive back, I’ve got a short memory. All line from Bovada.

New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins

Just when you thought London’s NFL fever couldn’t burn any hotter, Jay Cutler comes riding into town to really whip everyone into a frenzy. Don’t tell me it’s impossible to grow the game internationally. All we have to do is show them as many bad QBs as possible, and all of a sudden Drew Brees shows up and looks like the second coming of George Best (a little footy reference for everyone. This game’s in England, where they prefer soccer to football, if you didn’t know). Brilliant strategy. This game actually might be kind of fun and high scoring, but that tantalizing potential alone ensures this will be a dud.

Pick: Saints -3

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8)

Can the Falcons threaten to blow a late lead against a team that can’t pass? We’ll soon find out. I really can’t wrap my mind around how everyone has the Falcons as their number one team. They could have lost every game they played because they can’t not gag in the fourth quarter. The demons are still there from last year. This team stinks and is gonna lose in the first round of the playoffs. You heard it here, first.

Pick: Bills +8

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9)

Much like last week, this line feels a little too high for my beloved Patriots. In a matchup of stoppable force and moveable offense, the Panthers are hoping the Pats’ swiss cheese defense can help jumpstart the worst offense in the history of football, but don’t get your hopes up. Panthers D is good enough to frustrate and harass Brady enough to keep this within 9.

Pick: Panthers +9

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens

I was tempted to put the Ravens name in blue, because then it’d be black and blue, and we all know how physical these games are, am I right? No love lost here, I’m told. If you’re looking for 2010 NFL thrills, you’ve come to the right place. I have no intention of watching any more of this game than what shows up on RedZone, because this thing is going to be a snoozefest. Stay away from this game if you like things like offense, completed passes, gains of more than three yards, aesthetically pleasing television, and saving record books, because everyone knows you have to throw them out when these two get together.

Pick: Ravens +3

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

I know they’ve won two games, but the Rams still stink, I don’t care what anyone says. Cowboys look like they’re about to be Back, anyway.

Pick: Cowboys -6.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2)

Until something changes, I fully expect every single Lions game to mirror last week’s game against the Falcons (and their last like 20 games)- the Lions will go down big early then come furiously storming back until the entire game comes down to one hectic, last second play that end controversially. With the Lions’ soft D, and the Vikings’ surprisingly strong offense (until the defense realizes Case Keenum is QB) and ferocious defense, it’s set up perfectly for a big first half lead that gets slowly eroded over the course of the second half.

Pick: Lions +2

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns

I just want everyone to know that I got a paper cut earlier today and that my laptop charger doesn’t really work anymore, so next time someone tells you Millennials never go through adversity set them straight.

Pick: Ideally no one, but I suppose Bengals -3.5

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Houston Texans

Titans showed they could handle elite defenses on the road last week they they kind of took it to Seattle, and I think the Texans offensive outburst last week was more a product of the Pats’ inability to stop a nose bleed than any real prowess from Houston. If the Titans really want to keep the hype train rolling, they need to win this game, and they need to win it solidly.

Pick: Titans -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at New York Jets

I know this is going to really dampen your expectations for this game, but I regret to report Matt Forte won’t play in this game. I know, I’m disappointed, too. Here I was, thinking I’d get the privilege to watch Matt Forte run into non-existent holes and get stuffed for no gain for three hours on Sunday, but now someone else is going to take his place. I think I understand the people who cry about NBA players resting, now.

Pick: Jags -3.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)

The Chargers are like the Lions, expect they never actually succeed and something always goes wrong at the worst time. Until that changes, I’m not sure how you could bet on such cosmically bad luck in good faith.

Pick: Eagles +2

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Maybe next week I’ll start with the late games, because I’m already running out of steam. Guess someone had to pick up the slack now that Rick Pitino’s gone. OOOOOOHHHHHHH! Anyway, this game is gonna stink. Don’t expect anyone’s interest to last longer than 15 seconds.

Pick: 49ers +7

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Who’s ready for another weather delay? I am!!! Gotta love the logic. “September/early October the weather in Florida is terrible, so rather than not schedule games in Florida, let’s just put them on late so every game happens during a hurricane. That’ll fix everything!” Actually brilliant by the NFL, because since this game will be delayed by an hour or so, it’ll fill the gap between the 4 o’clock games and the Sunday Night game. It’ll also inch the NFL closer to their goal of having the Giants on National TV every single week.

Pick: Bucs -3

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)

In theory, this should be a good, close game, but the Raiders just got completely housed by the Redskins. I’m pretty sure the Broncos are a better team, regardless of how limited Siemian is, and Denver is the most impossible place to play in the league. By the Cosmic Law of NFL stupidiy this is going to be a Raiders rout.

Pick: Raiders +3

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13)

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Who the hell thought this was a good game? Even if Luck was playing, he always plays terribly against good teams. Someone put me in charge of NBC. Al Michaels would never have to look at games like this.

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

People who dislike Native American team names, look away! People who like to root for bugs to beat windshields, also look away!

Pick: Chiefs -7

Bonus College Picks:

• Washington State +5 vs USC
• Vanderbilt +9 at Florida
• UConn at SMU Under 76
• Clemson -7.5 at Virginia Tech
• Oklahoma State -10.5 at Texas Tech

At some point during last night’s unexpectedly exciting Rams-49ers game, I realized that I was failing all of you. During last year’s NFL playoffs, right after I started this site, I’m sure many of you became reliant on my picks to boost your income a little bit. But through the first two weeks of the NFL season, my picks were nowhere to be found. Any coincidence it was arguably the worst two weeks of football since the merger? Not likely. I’ll raise my hand and take the blame for that, but much like the effectiveness of Color Rush, my NFL picks are officially Back. These game breakdowns will be a lot shorter than the playoff ones because I don’t hate myself enough to write 1,000 words about 15 week 3 games, but the fact remains that these are all stone cold locks and, if you were smart, you’d take these and bet the house on all of them. Lines taken from Bovada.

(Side rant coming out of last night’s broadcast that I’m not sure really belongs here, but whatever: after he made the game-clinching sack, Cris Collinsworth said that Aaron Donald was already a Hall of Famer. I saw a couple people grumbling about it on twitter.com, but didn’t do much research to find out if there were a lot of people who A. noticed it and B. had an issue with it, because I’m fine with just using a straw man. Do people really think Aaron Donald isn’t a Hall of Famer? Have these people watched him play? Have these people watched other defensive linemen play? I know there’s a valid narrative that there is a huge dearth of offensive line talent, but, in my mind, that’s partly because we’re currently in a golden era of defensive linemen. Literally the two greatest defensive linemen to ever play the game are in the league right now, and Donald is one of them. Maybe I just have a different standard, but I value someone’s prime years over stats accumulated over a million seasons, and I’m not sure Donald has even hit his prime yet. If you don’t think Aaron Donald is in already, how do you feel about Joe Namath, Harry Carson, Terry Bradshaw, and a million other players who are currently in the Hall of Fame who were all worse than Aaron Donald is at age 26? He’s a slam dunk Hall of Famer.)

Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Seems like the Jags have played a thousand games in London, but this is only their fifth game, and, don’t look now, they’re riding a two game London winning streak. That’s like the Patriots winning 25 straight games. So you know they’re red hot, but they may run into trouble if eliteness travels across the pond.

Pick: Ravens -4

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Wait, an NFC East divisional game isn’t on national TV? What the hell is that about? Who can I complain to? Anyway, while the thought of this Eagles’ d-line going against the Giants’ woeful offensive line is enough to get my d-line loving blood flowing, but are the Giants really going to go 0-3? And are the Eagles really going to win an important game by 7 points? I don’t really think so, either.

Pick: Giants +6

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14)

While my default is always to bet the Pats, this line is too high. The Pats have a billion injuries on offense going against one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is going to be boring, so if you’re not a diehard Pats fan like me, I would probably say don’t watch this no matter what. (If you couldn’t figure it out, J.J. Watt is the other one of the greatest d-linemen ever, btw)

Pick: Texans +14

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears

Steelers are trash on the road. The Bears are wearing their awesome throwbacks. I have no data to back this up, but the Bears have never failed to cover while wearing those.

Pick: Bears +7.5

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6)

Remember what happened when the Patriots played the Saints last week? Yeah.

Pick: Panthers -6

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Detroit Lions

I know the Lions are somehow impossible to kill, but they kinda suck. Falcons are officially on a “this 40 point lead will drag us out of the pit of despair the Patriots sentenced us to until we blow it in the fourth quarter” tour, which would seem like they’re perfect prey for the “be terrible until the fourth quarter” Lions, but the Lions defense is too bad. The Lions will come back, but not far enough.

Pick: Falcons -3

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Just a little word of advice: stay as far away from this game as humanly possible. If any game could ever finish as a 0-0 tie, it’d be this one.

Pick: Browns -1.5

Tampa Bay Bucs at Minnesota Vikings

Well, this is awkward. There’s no line for this game! I’m assuming it’s because no one knows if Sam Bradford is still alive or not. I’m gonna improvise here and say the line would be Bucs -2.5 just so I can give something. This game is either going to be terrible or great, really depending on Sam Bradford’s health (never a good thing).

Pick: Bucs -whatever

Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets

AFC East bitches!!!! Why don’t our games get put on national TV all the time? Oh, right, because every team is terrible. Seeing the Niners come close to winning a game might breathe new life into the Jets’ tanking efforts, so they’ll probably lose by a lot.

Pick: Dolphins -6

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills

You know what this has made me realize? There’s too many blue teams. There needs to be more green, more purple. Someone needs to have the guts to go pink. Too much blue.

Pick: Broncos -3.5

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-3)

For the last few years, I’ve had my finger on the pulse of the Seahawks. I’ve gotten their games right more than pretty much any other team in the league. This is one of the easiest ones I’ve ever seen. Any time they look terrible and get people talking about how bad they are, they start stomping on people again.

Pick: Seahawks +3

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9)

Can the Bengals really be this bad? Yes, yes they can.

Pick: Packers -9

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The amount of different ways the Chargers have found to go down multiple scores in the first half only to come storming back with five minutes left and lose by three is truly astounding.

Pick: Chargers +3.5

Oakland Raiders (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

I don’t know why (maybe because the Raiders have been really good and the Redskins haven’t), but I’m really feeling a Raiders blowout here. Just a gut feeling.

Pick: Raiders -3.5

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Yuck. I have no interest watching this game whatsoever. Cardinals stink. Cowboys are (surprise) overrated as hell. I’ll watch it, because, as Thursday Night Football tells us, when it’s on, it’s on, but I’ll be unhappy about it.

Pick: Cowboys -3.5

SPECIAL BONUS COLLEGE PICKS

Betting college football is easier, more enjoyable, and less stressful than betting NFL. I highly recommend it. Here are some of my favorite bets for tomorrow:

• Pitt vs. Georgia Tech over 56
• TCU +14 vs. Oklahoma State
• Rutgers +12 vs. Nebraska
• Michigan vs. Perdue over 56
• Oklahoma -28 vs. Baylor
• Missouri -18 vs. Auburn
• Oregon vs. Arizona State over 76

In case you missed it, I covered the AFC on Sunday. I’ll keep the intro brief, since I’m currently fighting off a debilitating illness. NFC time, spoiler alert, it’s much better than the AFC.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys– Just what everyone wants, more Cowboys talk! Did you know the Cowboys stylize themselves as America’s Team? I just learned that the other day! What an odd bit of trivia. In fact, I feel like I haven’t heard much about the Cowboys for years. If only they were on national TV more often so I could get to know them better.

Where to actually start with the Boyz? The psychopath running back? The second-year QB who will still face criticism if he isn’t perfect despite an historic rookie season? The collection of all-powerful cosmic beings known only as the Cowboys Offensive Line? The shitty defense? The fact that they played in 10 one score games last year and were probably lucky to win 7 of them? The fact that they haven’t won a playoff game since 1995? The fact that they went from playing a last place team’s schedule to playing a first place team’s? The fact that the extremely rare genuinely fun Cowboys story (the emergence of former basketball player Rico Gathers as a beastly tight end) was cut short when he was put on IR? I don’t know, I think I’m out on the Cowboys.

Over/Under 9.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Zeke getting suspended (maybe?)

Burning Question: When’s Romo coming back?

Bold Prediction: They’ll come in to week 17 in a do or die scenario for the playoffs and lose controversially so the entire offseason will be dominated by debates about if the Cowboys were cheated and how much damage they could have done in the playoffs.

 

New York Giants– Gotta tell you, I’m a little nervous. This Giants team looks legit as hell. Their defense is completely stacked. Receiving weapons out the ass. They’re looking like a very real Super Bowl contender, where they’d almost certainly face the Pats. I never want to experience another Pats-Giants Super Bowl as long as Tom Brady is in the league. If the Giants make the Super Bowl, I’d rather the Pats lose first round. Since the first two Giants teams that beat the Pats really weren’t very good in the regular season, I might be inclined to think this year’s Giants squad would be too good to make their signature crazy run, but they’re still flawed enough to lose some games they shouldn’t. Their o-line and running game suck. Eli is still Eli. They could out play every single team they play all year, but actually winning more than 11 games isn’t in their DNA. If they win their last 3 games, though, I’m going to be officially scared.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing Brandon Marshall

Burning Question: Is the only way to get Odell to show up for a playoff game to make sure it takes place on a boat?

Bold Prediction: They’ll probably beat the Pats to win the Super Bowl

 

Philadelphia Eagles– The Eagles are kind of like Titans Lite. I’ve seen plenty of people saying the Eagles could surprise. Saying reckless things like Carson Wentz is the best young QB. They’ve got a late-2000s Giants defensive line. Philadelphia is suddenly the center of the sports world. And, honestly, I’m kinda sorta buying the hype.

This team is built on their defense, which was one of the very best in the league last year. Now add Timmy Jernigan, Chris Long, and first round pick Derek Barnett to the defensive line, which already had standouts Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham? This team could cause some serious havoc up front. Carson Wentz hit the rookie wall hard last year, but he showed some serious signs of the possible things to come at the beginning of the season. If he can put together a consistent 16 games (and doesn’t try to be Tom Brady in his second year in the league), the offense could be pretty good. They’re not going to win the Super Bowl (obviously, they still play in Philly), but don’t be shocked to see them in the playoffs.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Adding to the d-line

Burning Question: What does your favorite cheesesteak place say about the inner workings of your subconscious? My column:

Bold Prediction: Everyone will overreact to every single game

 

Washington Redskins– I know everyone was waiting to find out, and the answer is yes: I am brave enough to say Washington. It was easily the most (only) anticipated part of this blog. I won’t let the media scare me from calling a team by its proper name. Impressive, I know.

A distant cousin (get it?) of my love of brown jerseys is my love of maroon jerseys. Love Virginia Tech jerseys, sometimes love the Cavs jerseys, love the Skins set. Burgundy and gold is just a prime time combination. Might be the best color scheme in the league, honestly. Top five at worst. So even when they give up 45 points per game, they’ll still look great doing it.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Signing Terrelle Pryor

Burning Question: What’s the relationship between the number of Redskins losses and the amount of change the name columns?

Bold Prediction: They’ll be top five in points scored and points allowed

 

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers– Feels like the Packers have been essentially the same team ever since Aaron Rodgers took over, and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, are once again a popular pick to make the Super Bowl in the NFC. And, once again, it’s easy to see why. No matter who’s there, who’s healthy, who’s hurt, who the running back is, as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center there won’t be five better offenses in the league. He’s one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks of all time, and, even though he’s somehow 33, is somehow getting better. They’ll score at will (in the regular season, at least).

The only problem is their middling defense. They finished in the bottom half of the league in just about everything, including 3rd down conversion percentage allowed. Hard to torch opposing defenses from the sidelines. Regardless of what Rodgers does, the defense is what typically fails the Packers at the worst possible moment. They got completely run off the field by Atlanta, and they didn’t really do a whole lot to address it. One dimensional teams can only go so far in pro sports, and the Packers may find themselves at a crossroads if they disappoint again.

Over/Under 10 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing Martellus Bennett

Burning Question: Will Aaron Rodgers spend more time planning his next photo bomb than studying film?

Bold Prediction: Every Packers owner you meet will tell you about it within seconds of talking to them.

 

Minnesota Vikings– Could a home team finally play in the Super Bowl? Honestly, it’s not all that far fetched. This is a pretty interesting roster. Sammy Sleeves was….kind of good last year? Sure, he operated at an Alex Smithian-level of conservative play, but he still set the record for completion percentage in a season. People forget he was traded two weeks before the season started. Now that he’s got a full year in the system under his belt he might actually try throwing the ball more than five yards downfield. Rookie Dalvin Cook might give them a semblance of a running game, something they sorely lacked with the absence of team legend Adrian Peterson. Only problem is, their offensive line is complete ass. They might have the worst tackles in the league. It could easily submarine their season barring some sort of unexpected improvement.

The defense faded badly down the stretch, but they were terrifying in the first half of the season, and they certainly have the talent to dominate on that side of the ball. They’re deep at every position and, with a stronger finish and a bounce back from linebacker Anthony Barr, could finish as a top five defense. If they can avoid adding to the never-ending list of Vikings-related examples of Murphy’s Law, they might actually have a chance to make a run in the postseason.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Releasing Adrian Peterson

Burning Question: Does Bradford have it in him to captain Sex Boat 2?

Bold Prediction: The Super Bowl will take place in Minnesota

 

Detroit Lions– In some strange, parallel universe, the Lions are a perennial powerhouse and a multi-time Super Bowl champion. Where everything always goes right for them, they win big games, and their great players don’t retire early to escape the unending hell that is playing for the Lions. We do not live in that reality.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Locking up Matt Stafford (side note, if you don’t think the Lions were 100% right to do this, you’re a fool. There’s 15 good quarterbacks in the league and he’s one of them. They had no choice whatsoever, and that’s the price you pay for good QBs)

Burning Question: Will slightly changing their jerseys reverse close to a century of luck so bad it can only be explained by the supernatural?

Bold Prediction: The Lions will not win the Super Bowl

 

Chicago Bears– Hope is always high when you draft a quarterback second overall, but there’s usually a reason a team is picking second overall. For the Bears, that reason honestly seems to be the front office. It’s been a head-scratching few seasons for them, and this offseason was just a microcosm of how self-inflicted most of their wounds are. Trading three valuable picks just to move up one spot when the 49ers weren’t going to take Trubisky, anyway. Bidding against absolutely no one to sign Mike Glennon to a huge deal. Bidding against absolutely no one to claim kicker Roberto Aguayo off waivers then waiving him. Keeping John Fox for this year when they’re almost definitely firing him after the season, killing the chance for some early continuity for their prize QB. There’s actually some interesting pieces on this roster, particularly on defense, but their own front office might hold them back from ever moving forward.

Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Bulls trading Jimmy Butler

Burning Question: How big of a grace period did the Cubs give every Chicago team before the fans actually expect them to win again?

Bold Prediction: Someone will reenact the “Da Bears” skit every time the Bears win

 

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons– I know it’s a long shot, but if any Falcons fans are reading this, I’ll give you a moment to look away…… Just kidding. There are no more Falcons fans left. The Patriots killed all of them. Just like they killed the Falcons. Kyle Shanahan skipped town. Matt Ryan is completely shattered. Devonta Freeman is seeing ghosts and mirages as he trudges through the desert he finds himself in. The entire defense has PTSD. The Falcons are dead. They might not win a game for three years.

Over/Under 9.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Went six months without blowing a 28-3 lead

Burning Question: If you open a stadium and no one comes to see it, did you open a new stadium at all?

Bold Prediction: Matt Ryan won’t throw a touchdown pass all season

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers– The third in 2017’s Trendy Team Triumvirate, the Bucs bought a one-way ticket on the Hype Express when they parlayed an offseason where they spent a bunch of money and brought in some fancy offensive toys with and appearance on Hard Knocks. But this isn’t this first time the Bucs have been the hot team. Seemingly every year the Bucs are the popular pick to be the surprise playoff team. And it never comes to fruition. Why should this year be any different? Well, for starters, everyone has faith in Jameis Winston.

Their passing game should be dynamic this year. Jameis will make the odd terrible decision, but it’s a lot harder to make those bad decisions when you’ve got Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate on the field. They don’t have a run game and their o-line isn’t great, but at least they can throw it all over the yard, right? The defense is good, not great. I don’t know if that’s good enough to make the playoffs in the NFC. They won’t win the division, so odds are they’ll be fighting with the Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, and Cardinals for the two Wild Card spots. While the truly great defenses still win games, offense is what really matters in 2017. Is the Bucs’ offense better than the Falcons’? No. Better than the Cowboys? If everyone’s playing, probably not. I think the Bucs are probably out of the playoffs once again.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Signing DeSean Jackson

Burning Question: Did you know Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard?

Bold Prediction: Dirk Koetter will walk the plank after this season (get it? Because they’re named after pirates?)

 

Carolina Panthers– I don’t know if I’m just higher on the Panthers than everyone else or what, but any time you put a team that was in the Super Bowl two years ago (that still has the majority of their key contributors) on a last place team’s schedule, I’m one to assume they’ll win a lot of games. I’m particularly high on their defense, which finished top five in weighted DVOA, which gives more value to how team play in the second half of the season. That means that they figured out whatever was going on in the early part of the season and fixed it, and, barring injury or Thomas Davis finally realizing how old he, should continue to play at a high level this season.

If the defense is a known quantity, the offense is the great mystery that will decide this team’s future. Was Cam Newton hurt all of last year, or did he really regress that badly? Was it all a product of poor offensive line play? A lack of reliable receiving options outside Greg Olsen? A subpar running game? Pretty much every facet of the offense struggled last year, and they seem to be placing a lot faith in everyone who played poorly last year turning it around. Rookie Christian McCaffrey should help. If reports are to be believed, he’ll have 100 catches and over 1,000 rushing yards. Regardless of what he actually does, he may be better in the abstract for now. If defenses have to react to the idea of McCaffrey, it opens things up for everyone else. Literally anything that takes some pressure off Cam is a good thing. I’m betting on the Panthers to bounce back, and bounce back big.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Drafting McCaffrey

Burning Question: What new way will Cam invent to have fun playing football that gets people riled up?

Bold Prediction: They’ll make the NFC Championship Game

 

New Orleans Saints– I love the Saints for a variety of reasons. I love offense, and theirs is the gold standard over the past decade. I love the SuperDome and the energy that comes with it. I love their jerseys. I love that they’re brothers in arms with the Patriots, franchises who were unfairly railroaded by Roger Goodell. I love their unwavering commitment to having a bottom five defense every year, regardless of the personnel and coaching staff. Unfortunately, that last point will probably sink them yet again this season.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Signing Adrian Peterson

Burning Question: Can you still be accused of putting bounties on players if you never tackle anybody?

Bold Prediction: Drew Brees will throw for 5,000 yards again and no one will care despite the fact that it’s amazing he keeps doing it

 

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks– You can keep your Packers and Cowboys and Giants, for me this is the team to beat in the NFC. They were one of the best defenses in the league for the millionth straight year despite Earl Thomas getting injured at the end of the season. Now they get him back and add Sheldon Richardson to what was already arguably the game’s best defensive line. They’ll be the best defense in football this year, and every score against them should be treated as a major achievement.

The offense needs some serious improvement, though. They were one of the very best offensive units in 2015, but their dismal offensive line really killed any chance of repeating that. And not much has changed, in that regard. This is still one of the absolute worst offensive lines in the league. Luckily, though, Russell Wilson is the league’s best escape artist, and his skills on the field cover up a lot of the o-line’s faults. The passing game will be fine, just like it was a season ago. But when the Seahawks were at their very best, when they instilled fear into the hearts of anyone who lined up against them, they ran it and ran it and ran it some more. Can this team recapture that Beast Mode magic? Eddy Lacy is skinny now, but he’s sucked the last few years. The rest of their running backs are okay, but not especially dynamic. And, again, a lot of the blame falls on the o-line. Seattle is like a much better version of the Colts in a way. They just kind of keep ignoring the problems they have up front hoping they go away. If they don’t, it’ll be the only thing holding them back.

Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Acquiring Sheldon Richardson for absolutely nothing

Burning Question: Can jet fuel melt steel beams?

Bold Prediction: They’ll make the Super Bowl, where they’ll be on the goalline with a chance to win….and throw another interception instead of running it

 

Arizona Cardinals– I’m kind of running out of steam a little bit here, but luckily the rest of the NFC West is pretty simple. The Cardinals lost a bunch of guys on defense, but they’ll still be a top 5-top 10 unit. Their offense will be okay, I guess? Palmer’s another year older and wasn’t good last year, but they really have no contingency plan in place if he goes down again. David Johnson’s still a beast, though, and should cover up a lot of the mistakes Palmer might make. They’ll throw deep a lot, as Bruce Arians is wont to do, but there’s kind of no one to throw deep to. They’ll benefit from playing the Rams and Niners twice.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing living legend Blaine Gabbert

Burning Question: Will any amount of inaccurate passes finally make Larry Fitzgerald angry?

Bold Prediction: Only a random game against the Jaguars will save them from having the worst jerseys in every game they play

 

Los Angeles Rams– The Rams are going to be bad this year. Nothing will change that. Aaron Donald, possibly the best player in the NFL, refuses to suit up until he gets paid. They were by far the worst offense in the league last year and all they added was Sammy Watkins, who I think is vastly overrated. I’m not a Goff guy whatsoever. New Cool Head Coach on the block Sean McVay could turn out to be an excellent coach, but, as they say, it’s hard to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Changing their helmets, but not the rest of their jerseys for some reason

Burning Question: Has Jared Goff learned where the sun rises yet?

Bold Prediction: With the number one pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams select…

 

San Francisco 49ers– This is a terrible, terrible roster, but they’re on the right track. Don’t be surprised if they have a top 10 defense within the next two years.

Over/Under 4.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Bringing in strategic mastermind Kyle Shanahan

Burning Question: Will they have the guts to take a knee at the end of games?

Bold Prediction: The Warriors will win the 2018 NBA Finals

 

Special Bonus Predictions

AFC Championship: Patriots over Ravens

NFC Championship: Seahawks over Giants

SUPER BOWL: Patriots over Seahawks

Can you feel it? The air is crisper. The heat is breaking. The leaves are thinking about changing colors. Grocery stores are getting the first wave of pumpkin and apple flavored food. Football season’s here, folks. And what a season it promises to be. College football’s had a few weekends all to its own, but the NFL is looming. Just a few short days from now, the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots will open their season against the Kansas City Chiefs, and then every weekend from now until Valentine’s Day will have pro football. Don’t blow all your excitement on the opening week, though. We’ve only got a finite amount of football before it goes away again. Appreciate and savor every moment. Embrace the 49ers-Rams games and the Jets-Bills games. Even bad football is better than no football.

With the NFL season so close, I knew it was finally time to break out my NFL Preview. If you were foolish enough to read my MLB previews, you might be wondering where my NFL thoughts have been. Well, because I didn’t feel like doing it want to reward everyone’s patience, I decided that, instead of breaking it down by division, I’d just do each conference all at once. You’re welcome. We’ll start with the only division that actually matters, the AFC East. All win totals taken from OddsShark.com.

AFC EAST

New England Patriots- The Pats (my Pats, I should say. Full disclosure and all that) start the season as, you’ll never believe this, the overwhelming favorites to win both the division and the Super Bowl. And for good reason. This is the best team in the NFL, and they just had the most aggressive offseason of the Belichick Regime. They spent big money on corner Stephon Gilmore, traded for receiver Brandin Cooks and tight end Dwayne Allen (and defensive end Kony Ealy, who they head-scratchingly released), and picked up running back Mike Gillislee, who lead the NFL in yards per carry last year. Normally, such a stark departure from the norm would be cause for concern, but I’d trust Belichick with my life (he probably also thinks Brady doesn’t have a ton left in the tank). Losing Julian Edelman for the season sucks, but this team is so stacked that they can survive and thrive without him. Sorry everyone, the Pats are still great, and they’re still going to win the Super Bowl.

Over/Under 12.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Trading for Brandin Cooks

Burning Question: Will they get bored beating every team by 50?

Bold Prediction: It’d honestly be bolder to say they won’t win the Super Bowl than to say that they will.

 

Miami Dolphins– In my years on this earth, I’ve only learned a few iron clad truths. The sun will rise in the east every morning. Bees are dying at an alarming rate. Video games will charge you $30 for DLC after you paid $60 for the game. And no matter where you go, there will always be at least one random ass Dolphins fan there. It’s invariable. Everywhere I’ve lived, I’ve known a Dolphins fan. I’ve never lived south of New York City, by the way. There’s just always a Dolphins fan wherever you go, and they’ll always be willing to tell you they’re a Dolphins fan. They’re mostly harmless. After all, tough to really be too obnoxious when your team hasn’t won a title in over 40 years.

As for the actual team, I have mixed feeling about them. I really like their jerseys and a lot of their players, but I despise Ryan Tannehill with the passion of a thousand suns and, just kind of instinctively, I dislike the team as a whole. Maybe because they’re the only team in the AFC East that comes close to posing a threat to the Pats. But their unprecedented streak of consecutive Offseason Super Bowls was broken by the very Patriots the Dolphins are always gearing up to beat. The irony is overwhelming.

It’s tough to really project anything for the Dolphins after Tannehill went down for the season. Any continuity they had from last year is gone, and the receiver-turned-quarterback was robbed of the chance to finally, finally, take that next step and become something other than a cowardly bum. Their defense was pretty bad last year (29th in total yards allowed) and they responded by adding a bunch of wicked old guys. I’m sure they’ll beat up the bad teams because, as every analyst will tell you, there’s a lot of talent here, but they still stink.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Addition: Signing Jay Cutler

Burning Question: Will the Dolphins actually be totally comfortable with Cutler since they’re used to a quarterback with terrible body language?

Bold Prediction: They’ll win week one and everyone will say Cutler’s finally figured it out.

 

Buffalo Bills– Another team with strong jerseys and a stronger fanbase, the Bills are the perpetually forgotten team of the AFC East. They’re bad, but not as bad as the Jets. They have distinctive uniforms and mascot, but not as distinctive as the Dolphins. They have a fun and effective play style, but it’s not as good as the Patriots’ McOffense. No matter what, they’re always second rate, which suits the city just fine.

What wasn’t second rate was their run game last year. They lead the league in yards per game, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and rushing DVOA. They have an elite offensive line, LeSean McCoy is still one of the most elusive and explosive runners in the league, and Tyrod Taylor is one of the premier running quarterbacks in the league. Losing Mike Gillislee hurts, but the new coaching staff is creative enough to overcome that. The passing game might be better than expected, honestly. I still like Jordan Matthews and think Zay Jones could be a good slot guy in the league. The defense wasn’t good, but maybe they can take a step forward in the post-Rex-Ryan-hype era.

Over/Under 6 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: New Coach Sean McDermott

Burning Question: Who will be the first Bills’ lineman to miss a game because of heartburn from too many buffalo wings?

Bold Prediction: They won’t beat the Pats either time.

 

New York Jets– Jets suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. Still, it would be the most Jets thing ever if they won 6 or 7 games this year to ruin their chance at getting the number one pick.

Over/Under 4.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Trading away Sheldon Richardson

Burning Question: Will this season increase or decrease Jets’ fans’ inherent self-loathing?

Bold Prediction: They will play 16 games this season.

 

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers– The eternal heir to the AFC Iron Throne, the Steelers boast the NFL’s most theoretically explosive offense, so long as they’re playing the Browns at home. They’re totally stacked on offense. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are both arguably the best players at their positions in the league. Martavis Bryant is back from his year-long murder weed suspension and is ready to beat people deep again. Big Ben is tough as nails and one of the most clutch quarterbacks ever, but he’s always hurt and complete trash on the road. They’ll score points. They’ll have a couple games where they score 50 or so to keep the hype going. But everyone but Antonio Brown is also likely to miss multiple games.

The defense could take a big step forward this year. Considering how tightly the Steelers are associated with defense, it’s actually amazing that the current version of the defense is underrated. They finished in the top 11 or 12 in a lot of major categories, including total yards allowed, sacks, and points allowed. Their biggest weakness was the secondary, but signing Joe Haden should help shore up the back line. This team’s gonna be good. Just as long as they’re not playing the Patriots.

Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing Joe Haden

Burning Question: Will Big Ben contemplate retirement before or after the bye week?

Bold Prediction: They’ll lose the AFC Championship game to the Pats

 

Baltimore Ravens– Listen, I’m biased against the Ravens. I hate them and everything they stand for. I would die before giving them any legitimate praise. But they’ve been dormant for far too long. Most deep Ravens runs haven’t been logical. They spend most of the regular season looking like shit only to win three in a row to close out the year and then make the AFC Championship Game somehow.

This is pretty much the exact same team as last year, and last year they weren’t all that good. Their defense is good, but not earth-shatteringly so. They pass a ton (like, more than anyone), but are trash at passing. The running game is abysmal. But all of that is going to add up to like an 8-1 record in one score games and yet another bullshit playoff run.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Push

Key Offseason Move: No one was arrested

Burning Question: Has John Harbaugh actually learned the rules of football yet?

Bold Prediction: There will be no love lost this season between the Steelers and Ravens.

 

Cincinnati Bengals– It’s so hard to muster any kind of strong opinion about the Bengals. They’re just so blah. Their offense is good, not great. Their defense is alright at best. Actually, you know what? Piling on the Bengals is one of the easiest things to do in sports, so I’ll say some good things about them: I think they have a top five helmet in the league. I might be the world’s only Andy Dalton guy. A.J. Green is a beast. John Ross is really fast. Vontaze Burfict is a scumbag but it’s fun watching him melt down. It’s fun to watch the whole team melt down, really. You never know how the Bengals will blow a big game, but you know they will. I’m looking forward to a season where they’re not good enough to beat any of the top teams but not bad enough to get a good draft pick. Great times in Cincy!

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Honestly don’t even know

Burning Question: Will Joe Mixon upset the balance of the NFL’s most clean-cut locker room?

Bold Prediction: Aforementioned Joe Mixon will rush for over 1,000 yards and it will spawn infinite think pieces about how you should feel about it.

 

Cleveland Browns– Of all the controversial stances, the one I’m most committed to and am most comfortable standing alone on is my love of brown jerseys. Wyoming has the best unis in college football, don’t @ me. The Padres died the day they abandoned the brown and yellow. Luckily for me, the Browns name pretty much dictates that they’ll never go away from their noble earthen tones. I had a crisis of faith last year when the Browns went through a redesign. After all, I thought the Browns previous jerseys were by far the best in the league, and this new-fangled set was an eye sore! But something clicked and I’m back in. They’re a little clunky, but I love the Browns jerseys again. I’m sure this puts all of you at ease.

Oh, yeah, the actual team is going to stink, but they had a big time draft.

Over/Under 4.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Willingly inviting (then wisely reconsidering) the creature known as Brock Osweiler into their facilities.

Burning Question: How will the Browns add to the Cavs’ desperate attempt to keep LeBron in town?

Bold Prediction: They’ll still be more relevant than the Jags.

 

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts– I don’t understand this projection at all. The Colts, who finished last year at 8-8 and enter the season with a mysteriously injured franchise quarterback, are set at 9 wins. Did I miss something? They ended last year with one of the worst offensive and defensive lines again, and responded by doing absolutely nothing about it for the millionth year in a row. They’re baby-soft and, to quote the greatest wordsmith of the 21st century, couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Sure, they just traded for the third-best quarterback in the AFC East, but that won’t help much after both he and Andrew Luck get hurt since the sieve masquerading as an offensive line will let pressure in every single play. I just can’t look at this roster and envision a good team.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Signing Jabaal Sheard

Burning Question: Will they hang a “finished 7-9 in 2017-18” banner?

Bold Prediction: Andrew Luck will play less than 10 games and refuse to blame his inept front office for torpedoing his career because he’s too nice.

 

Houston Texans– A week ago, I would have said this Texans season was going to be easy to predict: Like last year, a great defense is let down by an inept offense and their own inevitable destiny, culminating in a disappointing playoff loss. But now I’m not so sure. Far be it from me to trivialize a hurricane that displaced millions of people, but natural disasters typically give teams an extra bit of mojo. Whatever the line is for the first game in Houston, they’ll double it. They deserve to have a lot of luck in close games, and you should feel bad about yourself if you resent them for it.

Butttttttttttttttt, this is still a flawed team. Yes, it’ll be one of the two or three best defenses in the league. But the options at quarterback are Tom Savage, who sucks, and DeShaun Watson, who’s a rookie. Obviously any offensive numbers are going to be skewed when you start Brock Osweiler, but this was undoubtedly one of the three worst offenses in the entire league last year. This defense is good, but it’s not 2000-Ravens-Level good. In the coming years, if Watson can develop, they’ll become more dynamic on O, but for now, it’s going to hold them back. I guess this season was easy to predict, after all.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: https://www.youcaring.com/victimsofhurricaneharvey-915053

Burning Question: Does my snark have limits? Turns out yes.

Bold Prediction: They will somehow find a way to win this juggernaut division.

 

Tennessee Titans– The Titans are this year’s stock “hot team on the rise,” and it’s easy to see why. They finished last year as the 11th-best offense in yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game. Marcus Mariota looked like the truth before his injury. Now he’s back, and they add Eric Decker and first round pick Corey Davis to a previously uninspiring receiving corps and you’ve got a recipe for a lot of points. Then add in their second first round pick, corner Adoree’ Jackson, former Patriot Logan Ryan, and safety Jonathan Cyprien to one of the league’s most leaky pass defenses and you’ve got the full Trendy Sleeper. I’m sure you’ve heard all about them from the guy who’ll bring Game of Thrones jokes to the water cooler three weeks from now. The Titans arrow is pointed squarely up, so is the time now in Nashville?

No, it’s not. At least not this year. This budding empire may be built on pillars of sand. Assuming Derrick Henry becomes more involved this season, the majority of the Titans’ offensive playmakers have played three years or less, quarterback included. That doesn’t always work. Is Logan Ryan going to be the first player to thrive long-term after leaving Belichick’s warm embrace? Cyprien had one good season and got a big payday. That’s never backfired. The defense is still kind of stinky, even with three shiny new pieces. The Titans are coming, just not yet.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: See Above

Burning Question: How has there not been more backlash that the quarterback for the NFL team in the heart of country music territory is a Hawaiian guy?

Bold Prediction: They’ll be the most used team in Madden online this year.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars– Don’t look now but the Jags have been runners up for the coveted Offseason Super Bowl two of the last three years. Florida teams love spending recklessly in free agency and building impossible-to-live-up-to hype. This year they bring in Calais Campbell and corner A.J. Bouye to a very underrated defense that was top five in passing yards allowed. They’ll be stout on that side of the ball, no denying it. The problems for them are on offense.

They have a talented group of skill guys, and 4th overall pick Leonard Fournette could be an immediate force. But the success of their entire team rests on Blake Bortles taking a massive step forward. I’m sorry, but that’s not a sentence conducive to winning football games.

Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Not finding a way to circumvent NFL uniform rules and change their godawful jerseys

Burning Question: If they just stopped playing, would anyone notice or care?

Bold Prediction: There will be multiple salacious shots of the pool every game.

 

AFC WEST

Oakland Raiders– Last year’s Trendy Sleeper actually lived up to the hype until MVP-candidate Derek Carr’s season-ending injury in week 16. They had the 4th most efficient passing attack last season, and could, by combining a fresh Marshawn Lynch with their elite offensive line, balance out their offense and become unstoppable. Or maybe Marshawn is old and rusty. If that’s the case, the sledding will obviously get a lot tougher for the suddenly one-dimensional offense.

The defense is….not good outside Khalil Mack. They had the fewest sacks in the entire league and struggled against the pass. Still, it was good enough to win 12 games, but I wonder if they can sustain the magic they had last year. They won 9 games by 8 points or less last year. Records in close games are largely random year to year, so regression in that area is nearly inevitable. They also recovered the second most fumbles in the league, another essentially random stat that is impossible to duplicate. The Raiders may be in for a rude awakening in the luck department.

Over/Under 10 Wins: Under

Key Offseason Move: Signing Oakland native Beast Mode

Burning Question: If the Autumn Wind is a Raider, is that why they’re so bad in winter?

Bold Prediction: The Raiders will continue to be the most popular team in L.A.

 

Kansas City Chiefs– Another team on my list of top five helmets, the Chiefs might also be the team that scared me the most in the AFC if Andy Reid showed some balls and started Pat Mahomes. They’ve got everything else: a swarming, playmaking defense that can stop anyone when it’s right. No matter who’s running the ball, it seems like they always get five yards a carry. They don’t really have any receivers, but that flaw is only magnified by the continued reliance on Alex Smith. On some level, I get it. You know what you’re getting with him. He’s smart, he’s steady, and he takes care of the ball. But he’s also overly cautious and a limited passer. Pat Mahomes is anything but limited when it comes to throwing the ball. He’s got an Aaron Rodgers-level arm. Yeah, he’s a rookie, but I’d rather roll the dice trying to be great than stick with the hyper-conservative Smith. The good people of Kansas City can only see so many 6 yard completions on 3rd & 8 before all that barbecue takes its toll on their hearts.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Trading for linebacker Reggie Ragland

Burning Question: Will Alex Smith finally set the record for career check-down passes?

Bold Prediction: They’ll go on a nine-game winning streak at some point in the season.

 

Denver Broncos– Speaking of teams I’d be terrified of if they had a competent QB. Alex Smith is miles (get it? Because Denver is a mile high) better than anyone on the Broncos roster. They just brought Brock Osweiler back they’re so desperate! This is the best defense in the AFC, they have two receivers with multiple 1,000 yard seasons, signed Jamal Charles, who I think still has plenty left in the tank if he can stay healthy, and they’re trotting Trevor Siemian out at quarterback. That’s terrible. I’d feel bad for the rest of the roster if I didn’t know they’d wind up with home field advantage and beat the Pats in the playoffs if they had anyone better calling signals. They won’t allow more than 17 points per game and they’ll still be outscored on the season.  Makes me question who’s really running things in Denver.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Signing Jamal Charles

Burning Question: “Burning” Question, get it? Because weed is legal in Colorado. Get it? You got it, don’t lie, man.

Bold Prediction: Aqib Talib will shoot Siemian, Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch on the sideline.

 

San Diego Los Angeles Chargers– The ultimate “if they could stay healthy” team, the Chargers’ first two draft picks have already been cursed with the Charger injury bug before the season even started. This is actually a pretty good team if everyone actually plays. The problem is, that literally never happens. Keenan Allen plays two games a year. Every snap and offensive lineman blows their knee out. Their post-Tomlinson running backs go down like flies. The U.S. Government needs to create our own knighting system just so we can knight Phil Rivers for what he did last year. Throwing for almost 4,400 yards and 33 TD’s with Tyrell Williams as his number one receiver and the most makeshift of makeshift offensive lines is a minor miracle. If, if, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Melvin Gordon can stay healthy for most, not even all, just most, of the season, they’ll dramatically improve on their generally lackluster offense from last year. With their underrated, top ten in DVOA defense lead by stud D-End Joey Bosa, the Chargers could make a surprise playoff appearance. This is the post-post-post-post hype Chargers, and they’re finally ready to take a step forward. Unless they get hurt.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Over

Key Offseason Move: Trading for the immortal Cardale Jones

Burning Question: Why the hell did they move to Los Angeles?

Bold Prediction: The Arnold clip will survive the move to L.A.

NFC Preview Coming Thursday