Category: NFL

Folks, I’m battling right now. I’m scratching and clawing for every breath I take, fighting tooth and nail for every step. I’m sick, and it’s no fun. It’s compounded when games like the one that took place last night are thrust upon me. Both those teams stink out loud. After his first few carries, I was ready to dedicate this section to proclaiming Christian McCaffery the best white running back of all time (still may be true), but then he got like three yards the rest of the game. Cam looks, umm… let’s just move on from that before the snipers the NFL hired get loose fingers. The Bucs are just always slightly less enjoyable to watch than you’d think they’d be. Maybe they just haven’t meshed with Bruce Arians yet or something. I don’t know. Another thing, why does the NFL insist on scheduling games in hurricane/tropical storm areas during hurricane/tropical storm season? Particularly in NFC South stadiums that don’t have roofs. Every game gets delayed because-surprise!-there’s always inclement weather. Whatever. Week 2’s got some real duds and some potentially good games that will likely become duds. Let’s get into it. All lines from Bovada.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

I don’t want to pat myself too hard on the back for correctly predicting what would happen for the league’s two most predictable teams, but man did I nail these two picks. Steelers are just as cowardly and inept as always, and the Seahawks are completely incapable of playing in a game decided by more than one score. So where does that leave them this week? Well, if there’s anything Mike Tomlin is known for, it’s making savvy adjustments on the fly, so I’m sure he’ll have something cooked up. Or they’ll just do what they did last week and completely play into Seattle’s hands.

Pick: Seahawks +4

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Know what I’m already sick of? Hearing that Kirk Cousins went 8-10 for 98 yards last week. Hey, want to know Kirk Cousins’ stat line from last week? He went 8-10 for 98 yards. How about that? Pretty crazy. Almost as crazy as Kirk Cousins going 8-10 for 98 yards. Know what else is crazy? Aaron Rodgers has a defense now. He doesn’t have do it all on his own (“it” in this case being relentlessly throwing the ball out of bounds, losing before they’re supposed to in the playoffs, and alienating his family and “friends”). Talk about a wild development. Not quite as wild as Kirk Cousins going 8-10 for 98 yards. Something about NFC North storylines really gets under my skin.

Pick: Vikings +3

New England Patriots (-19.5) at Miami Dolphins

This might be the highest line I’ve ever seen in the NFL, but that’s what happens when the Super Bowl champions beat a team by 30 then face a team that was already considered the worst in the league coming into the season before losing by 49 points in week one. Now, I’ve never picked against the Pats here, and I’m not about to start now. But it’s established canon that the Pats struggle in Miami, and I refuse to believe that the Dolphins are really some JV squad with no hope against anyone. Pats losing a Miami game is becoming the new “Pressure Brady Up The Middle,” though, and it’s making me think the Pats win by 50. Going out on a limb, I know. Also, needless to say, the Pats news from last week got a lot less fun in the last few days.

Pick: Pats -19.5

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Washington Redskins

Is Dak now the best QB in the league? It’s hard to say, but probably not. But he’ll get to put up some more big stats this week because the Redskins stink. Cowboys hype will soon reach critical mass.

Pick: Cowboys -6

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

Here’s a rarity: two of the top five in the official Brian’s Den Helmet Rankings facing off (1. Bengals 2. Rams 3. 49ers 4. Raiders 5. Steelers 6. Chiefs 7. Chargers 8. Cowboys 9. Browns 10. Packers) (Notice my lack of bias. If it was still Pat Patriot this ranking would be much different, though). Andy Dalton is currently on pace for 6,600 yards. Will he reach it? Who could say???

Pick: Bengals -1.5

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Detroit Lions

Wouldn’t it be weird if the Lions ever made the Super Bowl? Like there’s a lot of teams where it’d be weird to see them playing for a title. Chargers, for instance. But it’d be Weird to see the Lions. Just some food for thought. Kind of love them this week, though. You don’t bring the West Coast Cali Brah mentality into the Motor City and come out with a win, even if Matt Patricia is the opposing coach. You get some Little Caesars and Coney Dogs in big Phil’s system and anything could happen.

Pick: Lions +3

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3)

I realize I should probably update the Titans’ color but there’s more than enough navy colored teams already. They can stay light blue for posterity’s sake. No one had to be happier that Andrew Luck retired than the Titans, who went 0-11(!) against him. They’ll celebrate their newfound freedom buy losing to the Colts.

Pick: Colts +3

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

The “look at all these fools who said Lamar Jackson should play receiver” straw man argument is so convincing that now I’m thinking that there really was a huge group of people saying that he should change position and not just one old clueless guy who’s been wrong about almost everything for a decade and a half. But yeah, turns out the guy who’s been good at playing QB at every level can have good games at QB. Crazy. Not quite as crazy as Kirk Cousins going 8-10 for 98 yards, but still crazy. They always say when it comes to the truly great ones, you know right away. And I can confidently say that after one week, Kyler Murray is a GREAT backdoor cover guy.

Pick: Cardinals +13

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Giants

Can I make a weird admission? I kind of love foot cramps. I don’t know what it says about me and I’m not too keen on finding out, but that pain you get when your foot just gets stuck in a ball? I live for that.

Pick: Bills -1.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-8.5)

I’m so ready for the Gardner Minshew era. Need a Mike Leach QB to excel in the league like I need air to breathe. If only he wasn’t on the Jaguars and didn’t play with a roster of 52 other players who completely lose their composure at the slightest hint of adversity. But hey, they were in the AFC Championship game that one time. I know the Texans are pretty good, but they shouldn’t be favored by 8.5 against anyone. Especially not during the great Minshew-Watson duel of 2019.

Pick: Jags +8.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders

Are the Raiders back? If they lose this game by less than 40, the answer may be yes.

Pick: Chiefs -7.5

Chicago Bears (-3) at Denver Broncos

Pass.

Pick: Bears -3

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2)

Remember the last time these two played? Pretty quiet, uneventful game, particularly the end. I’m so out on whiny Saints fans, and it’s different than being bitter about the league railroading the Pats at every turn because it was just a blown call. Like, your team still could have won the game afterward. The league didn’t force Drew Brees to throw a pick in overtime. Get over it. Rams by a thousand.

Pick: Rams -2

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Atlanta Falcons

Why is this matchup always in primetime? Feel like it’s been a night game every time it happens. And this isn’t gonna be a good game. Eagles are way better. So much so that I feel like I’m missing something with this -2. It’s like stealing. Whatever, I’ll take the bait. Falcons o-line and defense are swiss cheese.

Pick: Eagles -2

Cleveland Browns (-7) at New York Jets

Earlier in the week, this would have been the biggest lock Jets win of all time, but now Trevor Siemien is starting and Le’veon Bell is kind of hurt. Browns completely fell apart last week, but so much so that you can almost flush it and call it an aberration (almost. It’s still the Browns). Baker and his imaginary haters will have the boys fired up to play on Monday night. Not even the Browns can blow this, right? Right???

Pick: Browns -7

Ahh, football. That most aesthetically pleasing of all sports. Nothing quite like the first game of the new season. Dusting off the football viewing seating arrangements, dipping your toes back into the endless sea of snacks and drinks that accompany primetime games, basking in the glow of the new season and the return of high flying football action. At least, that’s what I assume last night was like. I chose to #boycott the game to show solidarity with the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots, who were robbed of yet another opportunity to kick the season off in style because of the petty grudge Roger Goodell holds against them. Will the slights ever end? If any other team wins the title, they get to play on the opening Thursday night and get their banner and rings in everyone’s face. But not the Pats. They win their 10,000th Super Bowl and they get thrown to the side because, stop me if you’ve heard this before, everyone is so desperate to get rid of them and crown the new Team. Guess what, folks. It’s never gonna happen. Especially if the two putrid teams that took the field last night are the supposed measuring sticks of the NFC. But keep telling me about how the Packers defense is the best unit in football history and that Aaron Rodgers finally has help now (insert fart noise and extended eye roll here) while pretending you’ve never followed an NFL season and think that the season ends after week 1. That’s not to say week 1 is useless. On the contrary, the bad teams are almost always bad from the start. And, uhh, yeah. Bears might be toast already. That’s your hot new coach? I’ll keep my crusty old man that everyone hates, thank you very much. How many times during the last 20 years have we done “here’s the hot young coach/QB, how many titles will they win?” thing? A million? More? What’s the success rate on them? 0%? I’m sorry, that was mean to Andrew Luck. He retired on his own terms, we all can understand that’s as good as a championship. Why do we even have a championship anymore? It’s just another way to dehumanize the athletes and boil their careers down to accomplishments and accolades they earn through their work. What a cruel society we live in. I’m fired up today, might as well get to the picks. All lines from Bovada unless otherwise noted.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Listen, if I know anything at all, I know this: the Vikings are going to STINK this year. The wheels might come off the Cousins-mobile sooner rather than later, and starting the season off against a good team (also known as Kirk Cousins’ weakness) means they’re starting 0-1. I sort of like the Falcons this year and I think they might win by a lot. Cousins 21-39, 278 yd, 1 TD-3INT game incoming. Expect boos.

Pick: Falcons +4

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins

Allow me to be the 40,000th person to say the Dolphins are likely the worst team in the league. Jury’s still out on if they’ll be fun bad or depressing bad. Wait, who am I kidding? Fitzmagic is starting week 1! I can’t believe everyone’s burying the ‘Phins during the first three weeks. This game won’t really say much about the Ravens, they’re just getting caught in the “Fitzpatrick’s first start with a new team” wave. Don’t let your heads drop too far.

Pick: Dolphins +7

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)

There’s some sneaky, super-under-the-radar, if-we-don’t-talk-about-it-maybe-it’ll-go-away hype surrounding the Jets this year. Fancy new jerseys, plenty of Sam Darnold buzz, they acquired a former Steelers superstar who isn’t insane, good draft. Things are looking up in the Meadowlands for the first time in years. That means they’ll lose this game. Sorry, but the only person who knows Jets life more than hardened Jets fans is someone who’s spent a lifetime laughing at their expense. They might finish strong, but a week 1 loss is written in the stars.

Pick: Bills +3

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This game has been canceled. In its stead, both teams will meet at midfield and see who can complain about the Patriots beating them cleanly in the AFC Championship game louder. I feel like I’m extra salty about Pats sour grapes h8rs today, maybe I should take a deep breath or something. Also not to be this guy but the Chiefs just extended Tyreek Hill so I think karma is probably on the Jags’ side. I’m also anticipating a bit of a bounce-back in Jacksonville.

Pick: Jags +4

Los Angeles Rams (-2) at Carolina Panthers

I don’t know, man. If Cam’s super hurt (which it appears he is), I don’t know if I want him going out there to get mauled by Aaron Donald all day. Every year I have a gut feeling that it’s the Panthers year but then I think about it for like three seconds and I’m out. I think this one gets ugly and another lost season (due to never-ending injury) for Cam.

Pick: Rams -2

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-6)

When trying to predict the fate of the year’s most hyped team, there are two ways week 1 can go: crushing loss that leaves everyone wondering what we were thinking (anytime the Jets have the lowest level of raised expectations possible), or they win big, sending everyone into a fever pitch, only to come crashing down later. The Browns would typically fall into the first category, since they’re the Browns and all, but they’ve gone so far over the top this offseason that they’ve put themselves in the not-sad-sack-organization group, meaning they’ll win this week by a million and put the hype train into overdrive. And still be 2-5 after seven games, because they’re still the Browns. Titans stink.

Pick: Browns -6

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-10)

Eagles good. Redkins bad.

Pick: Eagles -10

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

If the Seahawks weren’t the Seahawks, they’d win this game by a thousand. But since they’re the Seahawks playing at 4pm, this game will inevitably finish 17-14 after a last-second Russell Wilson TD pass.

Pick: Bengals +9.5

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

Might have been a good game three weeks ago, but it no longer is. Two dead teams, one murdered by Andrew Luck, the other by the Patriots, meet in the least relevant NFL stadium in history. Should be great! But hey, this is the Chargers’ year, believe me. Brissett MVP.

Pick: Colts +6.5

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray’s first game. Yeah.

Pick: Cardinals

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Wait, hold on. This game isn’t on primetime. This is an outrage! How dare the NFL deprive us of yet another NFC East division game on Sunday night? What am I supposed to do without a boring 24-14 game where nothing happens except one tiny coaching mistake/bad call that leads to a completely manufactured controversy? Why is the NFL choosing to highlight good teams instead of teams in big markets? What the hell?

Pick: Cowboys -7.5

San Fransisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

My sources are confirming that this is, in fact, a professional football game being played under National Football League regulations. Strange.

Pick: Bucs -1

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6)

Sorry, everyone. Pats are better this year than they were last year. Josh Gordon’s back. The defense is stacked. A thousand good running backs. Best coach ever. Best QB ever. And they get to open the season against their eternal whipping boys. Yes, please. H8rs look away.

Pick: Pats -6

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7)

I’m out on the Saints. Drew Brees is done. Their collective spirit is broken after back-to-back devastating playoff losses. They secretly don’t have more than two reliable offensive weapons. Saints stink again. Texans are the same harmless 10-win team they always are.

Pick: Texans +7

Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Oakland Raiders

Hey, it’s me from right before training camp started. Did you see that the Raiders traded for Antonio Brown? What a move! Can’t see this backfiring on them in any way. Raiders to the moon!

Pick: Raiders +1.5

1. Rob Gronkowski retired from the NFL yesterday.
2. Rob Gronkowski is the greatest player to ever play the tight end position and one of the greatest all-around football players in league history.
3. If you think there’s a tight end that was better than Rob Gronkowski you’re wrong.
4. Gronk was the best blocking tight end ever and the best receiving tight end ever. Do the math.
5. The best number 87 in NFL history, too.
6. 
7. People forget his brother Chris played in the league, too.
8. People forget his brother Dan played in the league, too.
9. People forget his brother Glenn played in the league, too.
10. Five best Gronk seasons
11. 90 catches, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs (2011)- also the greatest season in tight end history
12. 82 catches, 1,124 yards, 12 TDs (2014)
13. 72 catches, 1,176 yards, 11 TDs (2015)
14. 69 catches, 1,084 yards, 8 TDs (2017)- surely his favorite season
15. 81 catches, 1,163 yards, 12 TDs (16 playoff games)
16. List of various records Gronk has
17. Only tight end to lead the league in touchdown catches.
18. Only tight end with over 1,000 career playoff receiving yards.
19. Naturally, that makes him the all-time leader in playoff receiving yards by a tight end.
20. Most TD catches in a season by a tight end (17).
21. Most TDs in a season by a tight end (18).
22. Most playoff receiving TDs by a tight end (12).
23. Most seasons with 10+ TDs by a tight end (5).
24. Only tight end with three 1,000+ yard and 10+ TD seasons.
25. Tied for most 1,000 yard seasons by tight end (4, with Tony Gonzalez).
26. Most consecutive seasons with 10+ TDs by a tight end (3).
27. Tied for most TDs in first two seasons (28, with Randy Moss).
28. Youngest player with 3 TD catches in a game (2010).
29. Youngest player with 3 TD catches in a playoff game (2011).
30. Most Super Bowl receptions by tight end (23).
31. Most Super Bowl receiving yards by tight end (297).
32. All-time leader in tight end yards per game (68.3- so close!)
33. All-time leader in tight end touchdowns per game (.69- hell yeah)
34. All-time leader in tight end yards per target (9.9)
35. Tom Brady’s passer rating when targeting Gronk was 127.1
36. 
37. My favorite parts of Gronk’s career:
38. When he had 7 TDs in the second half of his rookie year and announced himself to the world.
39. When he threatened to revolutionize the NFL in 2011 when his partnership with [redacted] tore up the league with the greatest tight end production ever.
40. As he steadily added new massive braces every year, he became harder to tackle.
41. All the Pats haters realizing they liked Gronk, thus breaking their brains.
42. Having the best quarterback ever throw to the best tight end ever was pretty sweet, if you ask me.
43. Best individual games/moments:
44. The camo elbow brace
45. When he nearly won the 2015 AFC Championship Game in Denver single-handedly.
46. When he was an inch away from catching the deflected Hail Mary in the 2011 Super Bowl.
47. 
48. 
49. 
50. 
51. 
52. His final catch- the diving catch that set up the only touchdown in this year’s Super Bowl.
53. Yo Soy Fiesta
54. Gronk somehow managing to be the ultimate frat bro but being almost universally beloved throughout his career is an underrated phenomenon.
55. Gronk was a true 1-of-1. No one that big and strong will ever be as fast and nimble as he was.
56. Hey, Travis Kelce, no matter how hard you try, you’ll never be as good or as cool as Gronk. Boom, roasted.
57. This preposterous Dunkin ad.
58. I’ll be honest, 69 is a lot of thoughts to have on Gronk.
59. That time he was photographed with porn star Bibi Jones and had to apologize to Bob Craft is so funny now.
60. Hate on the Pats all you want, Gronk was a genuinely good guy.
61. He’s a regular at schools and children’s hospitals and seems to actually enjoy giving back.
62. Probably doesn’t hurt that the kids all have the same sense of humor as he does.
63. It’s too late for a Wrestlemania run this year, but 2020?
64. 
65. It makes too much sense.
66. I’m gonna miss Gronk, man.
67. On the field, he’s irreplaceable. Probably the second-most irreplaceable player from this entire run (wonder who’s number one?).
68. I’ll pray for all the tables in the greater Western New York area.
69. Let’s be honest, though. He’ll be back for the playoffs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umq1Pl-Ca2g

 

Super Bowl Sunday. America’s favorite party and the last football game for seven months. A great day if you’re a casual fan or a neutral observer, the longest day of the year if your team is playing. Trust me, I know from experience. Time never moves quite as slowly as it does on Super Bowl day. If you’re not like me and don’t suffer from crippling anxiety about an inconsequential event I have absolutely no control over, you can probably get a lot done during the day. The morning never ends and the afternoon lasts forever. 4:30-6:15 is four separate eternities. And then the game starts, and, if you have a rooting interest, it’s the longest four hours in history. The day is mostly agony, broken only by the cosmic coin flip that is the final result. But, again, that’s only if you’re like me.

If you’re not like me you’re probably going to a party with a bunch of people you either like or are tangentially connected to where you’ll spend a few hours eating food and having rote, boring, uninformed conversations about football and commercials and hear such gems as “Tom Brady’s a cheater,” or “I’m so sick of the Patriots,” or “you know, this should really be the Saints. Did you folks see what happened to them?” Sounds like hell to me. I’ll be in my apartment, alone, breaking down film in real time. That’s what a true expert does. That’s why you’re reading my thoughts on the Super Bowl and not your friend Doug’s. Doug thinks he’s the first person to come up with a Sean McVay coaching tree joke. He’s not, trust me. Super Bowl parties also leave too much to chance, mostly food related. What if you get there and there are no wings? Or no pizza? Or weird chips or a weird dip you don’t want but your friend’s girlfriend made it so you have to try it? Pass. Let me provide my own spread. It’s better that way.

Onto the game itself.

New England Patriots (-3) vs Los Angeles Rams

Did you know these two teams played 17 years ago in the Super Bowl, kicking off the Patriots Dynasty? Bet you didn’t. In a weird way, the roles are kind of reversed this time around. The Patriots as the established powerhouse with the championship pedigree against the young coach-QB combo that has aspirations of something greater. But it’s far from apples to apples. For starters, the Pats are only 3 point favorites as opposed to 14 point favorites (which, game-that-shall-not-be-named notwithstanding, I don’t think will ever happen again in a Super Bowl). There’s also no pressure on the Pats. What’s their penalty for losing? Brady and Belichick are suddenly not the best ever? The key players of the Patriots’ run get nothing out of this game either way. It’s all on the Rams. They’re the ones with the revolutionary coach that will undoubtedly see 31 of his former assistants as head coaches within the next five years. They’re the ones that went all-in on free agency and have the hopes and dreams of every single NFL player who wants both money and success riding on them. They’re the ones who have to carry the flame for the NFL’s entertainment-focused agendas. They’re the ones who, most likely, will be set up as the next team to kind of run the league for a few years if they win. And they very well might win. They have the firepower offensively and the beasts on defense. They won 13 games for a reason. In an alternate reality where the Chiefs won last week, I’d be rooting for the Rams. It’s in the league’s best interest for McVay to win. I like a lot of their players. Love Jared Goff. Aaron Donald is one of the five best NFL players I’ve ever seen. I’ve always been a big Ndamokung Suh guy despite the…antics. Aqib Talib is a former Patriot great. But they’re not going to win. The Pats are too smart, too tough, too experienced. This game is going to come down to the wire. Would you rather be the team with comically clutch quarterback and the coach who’s prepared for everything or the first time coach and QB with the injured kicker? I’ll hang up and listen. Sorry, America. Pats win again.

Just kidding. I’m not sorry.

Pick: Patriots

 

Prop Bet Special (via Bovada)

• Coin Toss- Heads -105
• National Anthem Over/Under 1:49 (Gladys Knight)- Over -145
• Will Any Scoring Drive Take Less Time Than Anthem?- Yes -145
• Over/Under Tony Romo Correct Pre-Play Predictions 7.5- Under -135
• Aaron Donald QB Hits Over/Under 2.5- Under -135
• How Many Times Will Ted Rath (Sean McVay’s get-back coach) Be Mentioned O/U 3.5- Under -400
• O/U Sean McVay’s Age Mentioned 1.5- Over -270
• O/U Total Net Yards 824.5- Under -140
• What Color Liquid Dumped On Coach? Orange +450
• Who Will MVP Mention First in Speech? Teammates +160
• First Song Performed by Maroon 5? “Moves Like Jagger” +600
• Predominant Color of Adam Levine’s Shirt? Other Color Than Black EVEN
• Will Puppy Bowl MVP Be Pure Breed or Mixed? Mixed -800

Tom Brady is God. Bill Belichick is God. Patriots have never failed to make the Super Bowl in the briansden69.com era. What did I do to deserve all this good fortune?

Here at the end of all things, it’s easy to forget how we got here. Easy to forget the Miami Miracles and the few weeks Khalil Mack was MVP and that the Lions actually played this season and that George Kittle quietly set the record for most receiving yards by a tight end and that the Chiefs-Rams game was supposed to be in Mexico City. It’s easy to forget that everyone (myself included) really did bury the Pats and call them done and question whether they’d even win 10 games and are now covering their tracks and calling the Patriots delusional and stupid for trying to use that narrative in their favor because the national media conversation about the Pats is primarily driven by spite, jealousy, and hatred. It’s easy to forget that the Saints were completely dominated at home by the Cowboys, whom the Rams just beat in a game whose final score belied the true margin of victory. It’s easy to forget that for all the grief the Chiefs’ defense has taken for being one of the worst in history, they’re much stouter at home and have a terrifying pass rush. It’s easy to forget that Sean McVay has spent more time in Sean McVay’s presence than anyone. All these forgotten things help paint the picture of the 2018 NFL season. They make up the background and the small details that make the piece beautiful. But the main subjects in the foreground? They’re about to be painted this weekend. This is Championship Sunday, the most important week of the season.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

It’s just different in the ‘Dome. That’s what they always say, at least. And I think it’s true, at least in this case: home teams have a massive advantage in Conference Championship games (no road team has won a CCG since 2012) and this game is in the Superdome. Pound-for-pound, I think these two rosters are pretty much even. It’s just those few differences that set them apart. The Rams secondary is pretty decent, but if Marcus Peters starts covering Michael Thomas? Uh oh. Aaron Donald is the best player in the league. But if Kamara gets past him and is up against the questionable linebackers? Uh oh. I just can’t see the Rams stopping the Saints. Drew Brees appears to have escaped the weird late-season slump he was in and is back to slinging the ball around at will. Saints defense is good, too. One of the best run defenses in the league, and if they do even a slightly better job at stopping Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson than the Cowboys did it’ll throw off the Rams’ offensive attack. Jared Goff is good. I don’t think he’s at “win the NFC Conference Championship Game singlehandedly” level yet. This has Saints written all over it, and it could get ugly.

Pick: Saints

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

It’s impossible for me to talk about this game without slipping into Pats Fan mode, so I’m not even going to try to avoid it. Listen, the Pats are winning this game. They just are. And they are underdogs, whether the poopy-pants talking heads and columnists want to admit it or not, and for good reason. The Chiefs were the best team all year. Best offense since the 2013 Broncos. They’ve got the league MVP, the best receiving tight end in the game, and one of the fastest players in league history. They’re at home, and we’ve already established that home teams don’t lose in the Conference Championships. But this arctic blast has to throw everything out of whack. Sure, the cataclysmic weather that was originally scheduled to hit Arrowhead likely won’t occur, but still. Gonna be freezing. Might have some snow. Might be a classic low-possession, low-margin-of-error game that the Patriots feast on. The number will always favor the Chiefs, which is why this isn’t about numbers. It’s about grit. It’s about balls. It’s about the best coach of all time and the best quarterback of all time taking the greatest franchise of all time out for one last ride. Soak it in, folks. These next three weeks could be it.

Pick: Patriots

Can you feel it, folks? The change in the air? The butterflies in your stomach? The way that time stands still? How much extra beer and pizza and wings you can consume? It’s Winning Time. The Wildcard Round is nice and all, but the Divisional Round is where legends are born. This is where the America’s Game episode really gets going. This is where dreams start to become reality, or, more commonly, where the Patriots crush other teams’ dreams. This is the Divisional Round, and it’s going to be good.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5)

The two Saturday games may prove quite tricky for the uninformed. It’d be so easy to overreact to last week or to overreact to the overreaction to last week. Which underdog is hot and which just happened to win last week? Which favorite just had a small blip and which one legitimately stinks? The answer to all of these questions (and more) is both. The Colts are red hot. Won 10 of 11. Dragged themselves into the top five in weighted team DVOA. Their defense is built to contain and frustrate explosive offenses, which, believe it or not, is something the Chiefs have. The Colts have living, breathing NFL players at running back and offensive line, which means they can take advantage of the Chiefs putrid run defense and shorten the game. It’s Patrick Mahomes’s first playoff game and Andy Reid is the coach and it’s the Chiefs at home. If the Colts get an early lead there are going to be so many tightly clenched buttholes in Kansas City that they’ll be able to set up a tightly clenched butthole convention (it’s late, okay?). And five points for a home favorite with one of the best offenses in league history is not that much at all. The universe is DYING for everyone to pick the Colts. It’s too perfect. The only thing seemingly favoring the Chiefs is the fact that home playoff teams are 43-21 in the Divisional Round since 2002. The only problem? In that timespan, the Chiefs are 0-2 as a home team in the Divisional Round and haven’t won a home playoff game period since 1993. That’s impossible. It’s just too much, man. Just think about which team you’d want to be backing if everything was going wrong- unflappable Andrew Luck and Frank Reich? Or green Pat Mahomes and good ol’ Andy Reid and decades of Chiefs anti-juju? I would feel pretty dumb for picking the Colts on the road if they didn’t cover. I would never forgive myself if I got caught in the Andy Reid trap again.

Pick: Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

This is almost a mirror image of the Colts-Chiefs game. High-flying home favorite that, at one point, was threatening to redefine what offense means but has gone cold facing a team tailor-made to go on the road and beat a superior team. The only real difference is that the Colts can keep up offensively. The Cowboys, even against a bad defense, will probably top out at 24 points. I don’t think they keep the Rams under 24 at home. Cowboys D is good, it’s not that good. This is actually kind of a fascinating game for the league office. Are they rooting for the most popular and valuable franchise in North America? Or are they rooting for the future of the league? Because if Boy Wonder Sean McVay goes one and done again? All those recent hires look a little less shiny. I think this is set up too perfectly for an NFC East NFC Championship Game. The universe won’t allow that. Dallas covers, Rams win.

Pick: Cowboys

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4)

Close your eyes. I want to envision this scene: Gillette Stadium. It’s freezing cold with blustery winds. Snow everywhere. There’s a football game going on, but it’s hard to really tell. Nothing’s really happened. No offense to speak of either way. It’s a low-possession, high-pressure game. One mistake ends the season. Everything comes down to pure grit and balls and mental toughness. Now imagine Phil Rivers winning that game over Tom Brady. Couldn’t do it? Me neither.

Pick: Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8)

Listen, the Saints are the better team. No one would deny that. But this is out of my hands. There are some takes you want to late on rather than early, and picking against Nick Foles is one of them. I’ll believe the magic is gone when I see it.

Pick: Eagles