Category: Sports

Super Bowl Sunday. America’s favorite party and the last football game for seven months. A great day if you’re a casual fan or a neutral observer, the longest day of the year if your team is playing. Trust me, I know from experience. Time never moves quite as slowly as it does on Super Bowl day. If you’re not like me and don’t suffer from crippling anxiety about an inconsequential event I have absolutely no control over, you can probably get a lot done during the day. The morning never ends and the afternoon lasts forever. 4:30-6:15 is four separate eternities. And then the game starts, and, if you have a rooting interest, it’s the longest four hours in history. The day is mostly agony, broken only by the cosmic coin flip that is the final result. But, again, that’s only if you’re like me.

If you’re not like me you’re probably going to a party with a bunch of people you either like or are tangentially connected to where you’ll spend a few hours eating food and having rote, boring, uninformed conversations about football and commercials and hear such gems as “Tom Brady’s a cheater,” or “I’m so sick of the Patriots,” or “you know, this should really be the Saints. Did you folks see what happened to them?” Sounds like hell to me. I’ll be in my apartment, alone, breaking down film in real time. That’s what a true expert does. That’s why you’re reading my thoughts on the Super Bowl and not your friend Doug’s. Doug thinks he’s the first person to come up with a Sean McVay coaching tree joke. He’s not, trust me. Super Bowl parties also leave too much to chance, mostly food related. What if you get there and there are no wings? Or no pizza? Or weird chips or a weird dip you don’t want but your friend’s girlfriend made it so you have to try it? Pass. Let me provide my own spread. It’s better that way.

Onto the game itself.

New England Patriots (-3) vs Los Angeles Rams

Did you know these two teams played 17 years ago in the Super Bowl, kicking off the Patriots Dynasty? Bet you didn’t. In a weird way, the roles are kind of reversed this time around. The Patriots as the established powerhouse with the championship pedigree against the young coach-QB combo that has aspirations of something greater. But it’s far from apples to apples. For starters, the Pats are only 3 point favorites as opposed to 14 point favorites (which, game-that-shall-not-be-named notwithstanding, I don’t think will ever happen again in a Super Bowl). There’s also no pressure on the Pats. What’s their penalty for losing? Brady and Belichick are suddenly not the best ever? The key players of the Patriots’ run get nothing out of this game either way. It’s all on the Rams. They’re the ones with the revolutionary coach that will undoubtedly see 31 of his former assistants as head coaches within the next five years. They’re the ones that went all-in on free agency and have the hopes and dreams of every single NFL player who wants both money and success riding on them. They’re the ones who have to carry the flame for the NFL’s entertainment-focused agendas. They’re the ones who, most likely, will be set up as the next team to kind of run the league for a few years if they win. And they very well might win. They have the firepower offensively and the beasts on defense. They won 13 games for a reason. In an alternate reality where the Chiefs won last week, I’d be rooting for the Rams. It’s in the league’s best interest for McVay to win. I like a lot of their players. Love Jared Goff. Aaron Donald is one of the five best NFL players I’ve ever seen. I’ve always been a big Ndamokung Suh guy despite the…antics. Aqib Talib is a former Patriot great. But they’re not going to win. The Pats are too smart, too tough, too experienced. This game is going to come down to the wire. Would you rather be the team with comically clutch quarterback and the coach who’s prepared for everything or the first time coach and QB with the injured kicker? I’ll hang up and listen. Sorry, America. Pats win again.

Just kidding. I’m not sorry.

Pick: Patriots

Prop Bet Special (via Bovada)

• Coin Toss- Heads -105
• National Anthem Over/Under 1:49 (Gladys Knight)- Over -145
• Will Any Scoring Drive Take Less Time Than Anthem?- Yes -145
• Over/Under Tony Romo Correct Pre-Play Predictions 7.5- Under -135
• Aaron Donald QB Hits Over/Under 2.5- Under -135
• How Many Times Will Ted Rath (Sean McVay’s get-back coach) Be Mentioned O/U 3.5- Under -400
• O/U Sean McVay’s Age Mentioned 1.5- Over -270
• O/U Total Net Yards 824.5- Under -140
• What Color Liquid Dumped On Coach? Orange +450
• Who Will MVP Mention First in Speech? Teammates +160
• First Song Performed by Maroon 5? “Moves Like Jagger” +600
• Predominant Color of Adam Levine’s Shirt? Other Color Than Black EVEN
• Will Puppy Bowl MVP Be Pure Breed or Mixed? Mixed -800

Tom Brady is God. Bill Belichick is God. Patriots have never failed to make the Super Bowl in the briansden69.com era. What did I do to deserve all this good fortune?

Here at the end of all things, it’s easy to forget how we got here. Easy to forget the Miami Miracles and the few weeks Khalil Mack was MVP and that the Lions actually played this season and that George Kittle quietly set the record for most receiving yards by a tight end and that the Chiefs-Rams game was supposed to be in Mexico City. It’s easy to forget that everyone (myself included) really did bury the Pats and call them done and question whether they’d even win 10 games and are now covering their tracks and calling the Patriots delusional and stupid for trying to use that narrative in their favor because the national media conversation about the Pats is primarily driven by spite, jealousy, and hatred. It’s easy to forget that the Saints were completely dominated at home by the Cowboys, whom the Rams just beat in a game whose final score belied the true margin of victory. It’s easy to forget that for all the grief the Chiefs’ defense has taken for being one of the worst in history, they’re much stouter at home and have a terrifying pass rush. It’s easy to forget that Sean McVay has spent more time in Sean McVay’s presence than anyone. All these forgotten things help paint the picture of the 2018 NFL season. They make up the background and the small details that make the piece beautiful. But the main subjects in the foreground? They’re about to be painted this weekend. This is Championship Sunday, the most important week of the season.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

It’s just different in the ‘Dome. That’s what they always say, at least. And I think it’s true, at least in this case: home teams have a massive advantage in Conference Championship games (no road team has won a CCG since 2012) and this game is in the Superdome. Pound-for-pound, I think these two rosters are pretty much even. It’s just those few differences that set them apart. The Rams secondary is pretty decent, but if Marcus Peters starts covering Michael Thomas? Uh oh. Aaron Donald is the best player in the league. But if Kamara gets past him and is up against the questionable linebackers? Uh oh. I just can’t see the Rams stopping the Saints. Drew Brees appears to have escaped the weird late-season slump he was in and is back to slinging the ball around at will. Saints defense is good, too. One of the best run defenses in the league, and if they do even a slightly better job at stopping Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson than the Cowboys did it’ll throw off the Rams’ offensive attack. Jared Goff is good. I don’t think he’s at “win the NFC Conference Championship Game singlehandedly” level yet. This has Saints written all over it, and it could get ugly.

Pick: Saints

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

It’s impossible for me to talk about this game without slipping into Pats Fan mode, so I’m not even going to try to avoid it. Listen, the Pats are winning this game. They just are. And they are underdogs, whether the poopy-pants talking heads and columnists want to admit it or not, and for good reason. The Chiefs were the best team all year. Best offense since the 2013 Broncos. They’ve got the league MVP, the best receiving tight end in the game, and one of the fastest players in league history. They’re at home, and we’ve already established that home teams don’t lose in the Conference Championships. But this arctic blast has to throw everything out of whack. Sure, the cataclysmic weather that was originally scheduled to hit Arrowhead likely won’t occur, but still. Gonna be freezing. Might have some snow. Might be a classic low-possession, low-margin-of-error game that the Patriots feast on. The number will always favor the Chiefs, which is why this isn’t about numbers. It’s about grit. It’s about balls. It’s about the best coach of all time and the best quarterback of all time taking the greatest franchise of all time out for one last ride. Soak it in, folks. These next three weeks could be it.

Pick: Patriots

Can you feel it, folks? The change in the air? The butterflies in your stomach? The way that time stands still? How much extra beer and pizza and wings you can consume? It’s Winning Time. The Wildcard Round is nice and all, but the Divisional Round is where legends are born. This is where the America’s Game episode really gets going. This is where dreams start to become reality, or, more commonly, where the Patriots crush other teams’ dreams. This is the Divisional Round, and it’s going to be good.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5)

The two Saturday games may prove quite tricky for the uninformed. It’d be so easy to overreact to last week or to overreact to the overreaction to last week. Which underdog is hot and which just happened to win last week? Which favorite just had a small blip and which one legitimately stinks? The answer to all of these questions (and more) is both. The Colts are red hot. Won 10 of 11. Dragged themselves into the top five in weighted team DVOA. Their defense is built to contain and frustrate explosive offenses, which, believe it or not, is something the Chiefs have. The Colts have living, breathing NFL players at running back and offensive line, which means they can take advantage of the Chiefs putrid run defense and shorten the game. It’s Patrick Mahomes’s first playoff game and Andy Reid is the coach and it’s the Chiefs at home. If the Colts get an early lead there are going to be so many tightly clenched buttholes in Kansas City that they’ll be able to set up a tightly clenched butthole convention (it’s late, okay?). And five points for a home favorite with one of the best offenses in league history is not that much at all. The universe is DYING for everyone to pick the Colts. It’s too perfect. The only thing seemingly favoring the Chiefs is the fact that home playoff teams are 43-21 in the Divisional Round since 2002. The only problem? In that timespan, the Chiefs are 0-2 as a home team in the Divisional Round and haven’t won a home playoff game period since 1993. That’s impossible. It’s just too much, man. Just think about which team you’d want to be backing if everything was going wrong- unflappable Andrew Luck and Frank Reich? Or green Pat Mahomes and good ol’ Andy Reid and decades of Chiefs anti-juju? I would feel pretty dumb for picking the Colts on the road if they didn’t cover. I would never forgive myself if I got caught in the Andy Reid trap again.

Pick: Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

This is almost a mirror image of the Colts-Chiefs game. High-flying home favorite that, at one point, was threatening to redefine what offense means but has gone cold facing a team tailor-made to go on the road and beat a superior team. The only real difference is that the Colts can keep up offensively. The Cowboys, even against a bad defense, will probably top out at 24 points. I don’t think they keep the Rams under 24 at home. Cowboys D is good, it’s not that good. This is actually kind of a fascinating game for the league office. Are they rooting for the most popular and valuable franchise in North America? Or are they rooting for the future of the league? Because if Boy Wonder Sean McVay goes one and done again? All those recent hires look a little less shiny. I think this is set up too perfectly for an NFC East NFC Championship Game. The universe won’t allow that. Dallas covers, Rams win.

Pick: Cowboys

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4)

Close your eyes. I want to envision this scene: Gillette Stadium. It’s freezing cold with blustery winds. Snow everywhere. There’s a football game going on, but it’s hard to really tell. Nothing’s really happened. No offense to speak of either way. It’s a low-possession, high-pressure game. One mistake ends the season. Everything comes down to pure grit and balls and mental toughness. Now imagine Phil Rivers winning that game over Tom Brady. Couldn’t do it? Me neither.

Pick: Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8)

Listen, the Saints are the better team. No one would deny that. But this is out of my hands. There are some takes you want to late on rather than early, and picking against Nick Foles is one of them. I’ll believe the magic is gone when I see it.

Pick: Eagles

Welcome to the first part of one of the best two-weekend stretches of the entire year. It may seem like a waste to use it up this early into 2019, but trust me: the NFL playoffs come at a perfect time. Coming off the bizarro-world that is Holiday SZN, the playoffs help ease the transition back into real life. The first two weekends are an extra four days of eating, drinking, watching football, and generally doing nothing, but there’s a full work week in between them. It’s like weening a baby off the bottle. Slowly take away the holiday revelry and sloth and gently nudge everyone back to actual life.

This is Wildcard Weekend, where the fat gets culled a little before the big boys start playing next week. This week features all your favorite Wildcard tropes: the Texans on Saturday afternoon, multiple way-too-obvious candidates for “darkhorse team that makes a run,” a good old fashion rest vs. rust debate, a game being hosted by the NFC East champ that no one really wants to watch, and, of course, teams licking their chops to play against Andy Reid in the next round. Let’s dive right in. All lines from Bovada.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1)

This is the best quarterback matchup of the opening round, which feels like a weird thing to say about a game involving the Texans, but here we are. This is a far more intriguing game than what’s usually thrown at us on Wildcard Saturday afternoon, mostly because these two are so evenly matched. Since they’re division foes, we can draw a lot of conclusions from their two regular-season meetings where… they split the games and both scored exactly 58 cumulative points. The Texans scoring differential on the season was +86. The Colts? +89. The Texans rank 11th overall in DVOA, the Colts 8th (although the Colts were one of two teams to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense. They were number 10 in both, but it still counts). Both teams are great at stopping the run and soft against the pass. By the numbers, they’re practically the same team. But, as they say, the game isn’t played on paper. The Colts have the advantage in two huge areas: quarterback and head coach. Andrew Luck is a better player than Deshaun Watson, but this isn’t Tom Brady vs. Matt Schaub. Either one is capable of winning a game singlehandedly, but Luck is just more advanced at this stage of his career. Frank Reich was hugely impressive in his first season as head coach. Bill O’Brien might as well be a trained chimpanzee. It’s a total mismatch. And I was about to say that the Texans have more top-end talent, but I actually don’t think that’s true. The Colts have some STUDS on the line and on D. DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt are great, Hall of Fame talents. Deshaun is a beast. But the Colts just have the better team. They’re too hot, too well coached, too deep. I would love to see the Texans win because it’ll mean they have to play the Pats, but I see the Colts coming out on top.

Pick: Colts

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2)

The Seahawks should win this game. They have the better quarterback. They have a better coach. They have the better offense and, top to bottom, probably have the better defense. They have better special teams. They have seemingly every advantage. Except one: the game’s in Dallas and the Cowboys were 7-1 at home this year. And rank in the top five in fewest yards per carry allowed and are in the top five in run defense DVOA. The running game sets up everything Seattle does offensively. Yes, Russell Wilson can easily win this game by himself, but it’s hard to win playoff games if you’re one-dimensional (unless you’re the Pats). The Cowboys have shown that, at the very least, they can frustrate good offenses. On the flip side, the Boyz have a very similar offense to the Seahawks, just with kind of wonky personnel. Everything flows through Zeke. Guess which team ranks 30th out of 32 in yards per carry allowed? Seattle (ignore the 29th ranked team). That’s not good. If Dallas slows this game down, makes it a grind, reduces the number of possessions, and avoids turnovers, I like their chances. I know I’m going to hate this halfway through the first, but I’m rolling with the Cowboys. Puke City. If the Seahawks win, look for Jason Garrett to get blamed for playing everyone in a meaningless week 17 game.

Pick: Cowboys

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

God this makes me nervous. This is the classic playoff game that’s so easy to get wrong. The Chargers are the better team. Flat out, they are. They might have the most complete roster in the NFL. They should win. But they’re the Chargers. Going east. For a 1 o’clock playoff game. Against the Ravens, who are perennially one of the most mentally tough teams in the NFL, which is the opposite of any Southern California football team. There’s no point pulling stats out for this game, they don’t matter. All that matters here is grit and balls and having the mental fortitude and experience to recognize this game for what it is. Try to envision the Chargers winning three road playoff games. This is shaping up to be my doomsday scenario, but the Ravens are coming to Foxborough next week.

Pick: Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-6)

There’s a lot of reasons to like the Bears. They’re at home, they have the best defense in the league, they have the likely coach of the year, and they just have the healthier roster. There are a few reasons to like the Eagles. Nick Foles is touched by God and they might have the best defensive line in the league. Seems like the Bears are rightfully six point favorites, right? Well, logic says yes. But when it comes to Andy Reid disciples, young (kind of crappy) QBs in their first playoff games, and Nick Foles, logic need not apply. The Eagles aren’t going to go back-to-back. I’m comfortable saying that. I’m not comfortable saying Nick Foles won’t win another playoff game against a classic first round loser. The Foles experience is all feel. All gut. My gut tells me Big Dick Nick is going to strike again.

Pick: Eagles