Category: Football

It’s tradition that after every NFL season, independent bloggers all across the country (and I guess some in other countries, but why on earth would you ever want to care about football if you don’t live in America?) submit their own incredibly valued thoughts on who should win the various awards. The rules of casually writing about sports dictate that I make my picks before the NFL Awards Show on Saturday night lest I risk expulsion from this powerful, rich, and diverse community, so my hands are tied. I’ve got no choice but to post this. I was going to wait until Friday, but this Super Bowl buildup has been so boring I just decided to do it today. I suppose boring is better than another fabricated cheating scandal the league creates for the sole purpose of taking away Patriots draft picks and ruining their reputation (please keep telling me the NFL is rigging games for them, pleeeeeeeeeeeasssssee keep telling me that), but it’s still been boring as hell. There hasn’t even been any minor trash talk. I’m almost wishing the Pats had lost so Jalen Ramsey could provide some entertainment. Guess I’ll have to make my own entertainment by handing out the Brian’s Den NFL Awards.

I always hate when leagues postpone the awards so long after the regular season ends. I’ve pretty much already forgotten everything that happened this season already! Did anyone but the Pats and Eagles actually play a game? I assume the Browns were terrible, but that could be any year. Stop trying to make sports award shows a thing and just hand them out before the Wild Card round so we can be done with them. Forcing me to watch (just kidding, I won’t watch. Probably) another long, terrible awards show just to find out Aaron Donald is good is cruel and unusual punishment. Anyway, since I don’t remember this season anymore, this is all just straight from the gut. Luckily, my gut is never wrong.

Offensive Rookie of the Year- Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Kareem Hunt is also an acceptable answer, seeing as how leading the league in rushing as a rookie is typically considered to be a good thing, but, factoring in kick return yardage, Kamara actually had more all-purpose yards and more total touchdowns than Hunt. He’s also one of the rare players that actually make football fun again. He’s a freak athlete that can take it to the house in literally any situation, and, seeing as how he had over 100 fewer touches than Hunt, I’d be willing to bet Kamara will be the one we still talk about five years from now. Kamara had a special, special season and is one of the reasons Drew Brees fought off Father Time for another year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year- Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans Saints

Decent draft for the Saints I guess. This is honestly the only award with more than one legitimate candidate, and if you ask me tomorrow I’ll say there’s no question Tre’Davious White is the clear DROY. Cornerback play is so difficult to judge, and the fact that two rookies consistently ranked in the top five on PFF’s positional rankings all year tells you all you need to know. Lattimore gets the edge because, without actually doing any research (what, you think I’m a professional or something?), I’m going to say he had to face a tougher schedule of wide receivers. And he plays for a real franchise.

Coach of the Year- Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

There’s no one that disagrees with this, right?

Comeback Player of the Year- Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

I’ve always been a Keenan Allen guy, so I was quite happy to see him stay healthy for a full season for once. The guy’s just money. He’s always had the talent and is always productive when he’s actually healthy, he’s just had the worst luck of all time. People forget how good he really is (I know everyone knows he’s good, it’s called building a straw man to prove a point. Read a book about sports debating one time). And now you can’t call me a homer because I could have easily just picked Gronk.

Defensive Player of the Year- Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams

You can keep your Harrison Smiths and your Calais Campbells, I’ll take one of the five greatest defensive players of all time who may or may not have reached his prime yet.

Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year- Tom Brady, New England Patriots

It always felt asinine to me when different people won MVP and offensive player of the year. With the notable exceptions of Alan Page, Lawrence Taylor, and Mark Mosely, every MVP has played offense. So how can someone be recognized as being the best and most valuable player in the league but not be the best offensive player in the league? How does that make sense? Trick question- it doesn’t. So, assuming my pick plays offense, my MVP and OPOY will be the same person. I love Aaron Donald. As I said, he’s one of the five greatest defensive players ever. He’s not MVP. So that leaves the offensive frontrunners, so let’s go process of elimination. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the league by a wide margin. You put him on the Browns and they still win precisely 0 games. Todd Gurley is a special player who had an awesome season. If you think he’s more valuable to his team than the top QBs you’re an idiot. Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and probably all of sports. Period. A great QB is worth more than virtually the entire rest of the roster put together. Yes, going from Jeff Fisher to McVay was a massive coaching upgrade that helped every offensive player, but do you think it was a coincidence that Gurley was terrible last year and good this year, mirroring the development of quarterback Jared Goff? I think not. A quarterback should pretty much always win MVP, regardless of how much you dislike him. So, all that remains are Tom Brady and Carson Wentz, who, despite missing the last three and a half games of the season, is still generating MVP buzz and was talked about as a lock before the injury. I know the playoffs shouldn’t factor in and that the voting already happened, but holding the awards after the playoffs happen mean that, you know, everyone sees the playoffs, so they factor in. And it completely locks up both awards for Brady. Down 10 in the fourth quarter against the best defense in the league without Gronk, Edelman, or any semblance of a run game, Tom Brady singlehandedly beat the Jaguars. It was literally 100% Brady. The Eagles completely dominated the second best team in the NFC without the supposed league MVP. Nick Foles played one of the great games by a quarterback this season. You know how many people can do Brady’s job? At age 40? You know how many other QBs would have won last Sunday under those circumstances? None. Zero. Not one other player in the NFL can do what Brady does. Apparently just about anyone can do enough of what Carson Wentz does to win games by a million. And people are asking who’s more valuable? I get people hate him and are upset that he’s still the best player in the league, but Brady is still the best player in the league. And because everyone’s got such an axe to grind with the Pats, he’s got two MVPs. Think about that. The best quarterback of all time, on the precipice of a completely unprecedented sixth Super Bowl win, has won two MVPs. We should be embarrassed at that. The country as a whole is so bitter and so desperate to get the Pats out of the way that we let Matt Ryan win an MVP. We let Peyton Manning win a thousand MVPs before losing in the first round every year. We give Aaron Rodgers MVP love like it’s going out of style, and the only team that he ever did anything with was probably his worst. Tom Brady has failed to win ten games in a season twice in his career, the most recent time happening in 2008. When he threw 11 passes before blowing out his knee. He’s missed the playoffs one time in a year where he started every game. One. Time. He’s top five in every meaningful passing stat. He’s arguably the most clutch athlete to ever live. He’s never had anything resembling a disappointing season and is always the best player on the best team. And he has two MVP awards because everyone is jealous of the fact that the Patriots have figured out a way to stay excellent in an era meant to prevent such dynasties from forming. Think about that for a second. You, yes, you reading this right now, have let your blind, irrational rage prevent you from enjoying a remarkable career that will certainly never happen again. You let your ravenous desire for new blood in the AFC control your mind, and now you believe that a league that lead one of the most egregious witch hunts in the history of mankind against a shining example of integrity, perseverance, competitiveness, and work ethic is now rigging games to have that same man succeed. Think about the fact that, after Sunday, Tom Brady will have played in the Super Bowl more often than Drew Brees has made the playoffs. Think about the fact that the greatest player in NFL history has two MVPs. I hope you’re ashamed of yourself. Because I certainly am.

First of all, I’d like to acknowledge the fact that no one wants to hear me, a Patriots fan, complain about playoff games that my team wound up winning. So, kudos to me for recognizing that. Now, on to the complaining.

I’m assuming you watched the Patriots game on Sunday. You must have, since it was the AFC Championship Game. Did you know it was the Pats’ 7th straight? I almost didn’t tune in because they’re so commonplace to me and I already knew what the result would be. Honestly, I wish I hadn’t watched because, once again, the Pats dragged me through the emotional ringer. Got dominated early. Pats were crawling around in the dirt bleeding out, begging to be put out of their misery, but, of course, the Jags take a knee with 55 seconds to go in the first half even though they had two timeouts. When they did that I knew what was going to happen and it was still a super stressful half. And it’s easy to sit there and say I should expect a comeback by now since it’s happened so often and that I should be desensitized to early leads, but that’s just not in my nature. I live to emotionally check out of games as early as possible. I was practically begging the Jags to step on their throat, just like I was hoping the Falcons would keep pouring it on. If the Pats lose I’d rather it be by 30 than 3. Yeah, it’s embarrassing, but at least I’ve been mentally prepared for it since the second quarter. But nooo. Other teams get so scared of having the lead that they just give the game away. If a team goes on a run of unanswered points on the Pats their sideline goes crazy like they just won the Super Bowl, but then the Pats score and all of a sudden they panic. It’d be like 45-3 and the Pats score going into the half and you just know the other team is going to spend the entire half talking about how they’re going to blow it. And of course the Pats gladly oblige. Winning a million championships is awesome and everything (I highly recommend it), but maybe win a game by a comfortable margin every now and then? Is thinking of my health too much to ask?

And this Jags game didn’t have to go this way at all. The Pats don’t lose to the Jags. Everyone in America knew what was going to happen the whole game. Pats just flat out don’t lose to teams like the Jags or the Falcons or the Eagles. They just don’t. They lose to teams like the Giants, Broncos, and Ravens who either have rich histories of being good or have been good pretty much every year since they got out of the expansion phase. Fake teams like the Jags don’t win in Gillette in January. The Jags beat sorry teams like the Steelers, not the Pats. The Falcons beat loser QBs like Aaron Rodgers, not the Pats. There was a 0% chance the Pats were actually going to lose their last, like five playoff games and they found ways to make them interesting. Maybe instead of toying with the poor people of Jacksonville, just win by a lot and save everyone the trouble? No disrespect to the Jags, who I like and wish continued success, but they just weren’t going to win. Especially when they started playing scared and playing not to lose. Like what if the Pats just start the game in hurry up, pass every down, and score at will in the first quarter instead of the fourth? I don’t know, just spitballing here. I know better than to question Belichick. And I know Brady only truly becomes Brady when he’s down multiple scores late, but how about for the Super Bowl we find out happens when they play with a huge lead? Maybe? Probably not. I’d bet my life on the Eagles leading at the half and the Pats winning another nailbiter. Oh well. If I die early, at least I can say I rooted for the greatest.

The Final Four. The last teams standing after a grueling 2017-18 season. Jaguars. Patriots. Vikings. Eagles. A murderer’s row of historically successful NFL teams. There’s a little bit of everything this weekend: a fast, fun, trash talking and playmaking defense in Jacksonville, a potential team of destiny in Minnesota, a “nobody believes in us” one seed in Philly, and the Pats. Two juicy, intriguing matchups that theoretically go either way. Well, they could go either way if you don’t already know what’s going to happen. Luckily, I do, so you can rest easy placing bets on Sunday if you simply follow my sage advice. This is the last day with more than one football game until September, so savor it. Maybe order an extra pizza or a dozen more wings than you usually get. It has to last two weeks, after all. There’s a lot to talk about with each of these games, so might as well dive right in.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (-8)

Until Wednesday, this was looking like just another AFC Championship Game for the Pats. Seven in a row, ho-hum. The only possible talking point was some manufactured drama about whether or not the Pats’ typical “our opponent is the greatest team of all time” speech was genuine or not. But then disaster struck and Tom Brady picked up a mysterious hand injury that is either brilliant gamesmanship or a serious injury that may have a dramatic impact on the game. I’m inclined to go with the latter. Belichick never gives anything away, so his dismissive press conference was no cause for alarm, but Brady’s?

#Patriots QB Tom Brady live press conference: https://t.co/fFg0vDEK8M

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 19, 2018

Yikes. That doesn’t sound like someone who definitely doesn’t have a hand injury. I’m hoping him wearing those gloves all day are just a way to boost the Under Armour #brand, but my brain is telling me otherwise. It sounds pretty obvious and reductive to say, but I think this game will be pretty obvious after the first Patriots drive. Quarterbacks can’t exactly hide a throwing hand injury. If he’s feeling good and can make all the throws he usually does, I don’t think the Jags will stand a chance. The Jags’ D is excellent, yes, but it’s far from invincible. They’ve given up 40+ points twice in the last four games. They have absolutely nothing for Gronk that doesn’t involve repeated hits to his head and knees. And all this talk about the Jags’ d, but guess who allowed the fifth fewest points per game in the NFL? Did you guess the Pats? I hope so because that’s the answer. The lowly Patriots who can’t stop a nosebleed don’t allow points. Who’d a thunk it? Don’t know if you’ve heard this before, but Belichick takes away what you do best. You think he’s gonna let Bortles start scrambling around, moving the chains, and chucking deep? Something tells me no. A healthy Brady means another Super Bowl appearance that will probably take another five years off my life. But that’s the other side of the coin. If the hand isn’t right, if he can’t grip the ball or the throws are all over the place or if the keep cutting to him and the trainer working on the hand on the sideline things might get a little hairy. Jags get an early stop or early pick, get out to a lead, then the feeding frenzy is on. Or if, god forbid, Brian Hoyer has to come in you know the Jags D will have stars in their eyes. Brady is an irreplaceable superstar, so if he’s not 100% the Pats are going to struggle. That’s really the only chance the Jags have, to be honest. So, if possible, wait until after the first Pats drive to put in your bet. It should be clear right away. Healthy= Pats cover, hurt= Jags cover. But, since I need to make a pick and I’m a homer, I’m going to pray he’s healthy.

Pick: Pats -8

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

If you were paying attention last week or on Tuesday, you know I teased this game as the ultimate matchup of Loser DNA. Once again, no Wentz means you can kind of throw out the numbers. These are the two best defenses in the NFC by almost any measure, anyway. It’s going to be ugly and low scoring. One play will decide it. Which is where the Loser DNA comes in. It won’t be who makes the play. It’ll be who gives it up. And one team is working with a much, much worse case of LDNA than the other. Philly fans are, by nature, pessimistic and quick to predict doom. But they don’t really have all that many terrible losses. Matter of fact, most memorable Eagles moments I can think of wind up with the Birds on top. They don’t really have the crushing losses, they’re just always kind of bad. Sure, McNabb and Reid should have won a Super Bowl, but that’s it. That’s not a cosmically bad case of LDNA. That’s the kind of LDNA that can be overcome. The Eagles are the exact kind of team that can still win a championship and escape decades of losing because it doesn’t seem like the universe is against them. They just haven’t won yet. The Vikings, on the other hand. Last week I said they would beat the Saints and be heavily favored in the NFC Championship and blow it because that’s the the Vikings do. Then they blew the lead on the Saints and I thought, well, this is what the Vikings do, too, so I guess I can live with being wrong. But then they pull off one of the luckiest, most stunning game winning plays in NFL history. It might have been the loudest stadium of all time. Reaction videos came pouring in. Tortured Vikings fans saying all those years of heartbreak were worth it. That surely they were going to the Super Bowl now. A Super Bowl in their home stadium, if you hadn’t heard. Vikings fans’ hope has never been higher. Last week I said the Vikings would beat the Saints then lose to an inferior opponent because that’s what the Vikings do. This week I’m saying losing a very winnable NFC Championship Game against Nick Foles with the first ever home team Super Bowl berth on the line after pulling of a miraculous victory that got every Vikings fan to buy in is such a certainty that I might take out ten different loans so I can bet every possible penny on the Eagles. It’s just what the Vikings do.

Pick: Eagles +3.5

I know you’re all thinking it, so I might as well answer your question: Yes, I did have a good birthday. I finally bought myself a Nintendo Switch so I can stop complaining about it, and am looking forward to ruining all productivity in my life as I try to 100% Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey. Buying yourself birthday gifts is one of the great joys of adult life. I have a million things I need to do and a million things I need to buy in the next couple months to prepare for a huge moment in my life (stay tuned), but on my birthday that all goes away and I can just buy whatever I want. Who’s going to tell me not to? Not me, that’s for sure. As two of my favorite characters from the greatest comedy show of all time (don’t @ me) said, sometimes you just have to Treat Yo Self.

You what else is a great gift? Accurately predicting NFL playoff games. I didn’t ask for this power, but I have a responsibility to use it for good. If I used it for selfish gain, what separates me from the absolute dregs of society? Nothing, that’s what. That’s why I share my precognizant picks with all of you. So that others may benefit from my startlingly potent game-picking prowess. How else would you have known to bet the house on the Titans? Everyone in the world was telling you to pick the Chiefs. It was so obvious that the Chiefs would roll. Andy Reid and Alex Smith in the playoffs? Rock solid. Having one the worst run defense in the league? Great sign. Being the Chiefs? Always works out. Well, everyone was right. That game was obvious, and the result was clear halfway through the first quarter. “What about the Falcons?” you ask. The answer is simple: I merely overlooked one of the most ancient of Playoff Clichés- You Need Experience to Win (if this is true how would any team win a Super Bowl without previously winning a Super Bowl? The Forgotten Ones who wrote the list of football clichés cared not for our human locig). How foolish of me. It won’t happen again.

At first glance, this week’s games seem a little murky. Some tight matchups that could go either way, some odd lines, Nick Foles. Too many variables for the average football fan. Good thing I’m not an average fan. After climbing to the sacred Temple of the Shield at the top of Gridiron Mountain and meditating with the aid of pigskin fumes, all became clear to me. What appeared to be a difficult group of games to predict became a walk in the park, and I’m confident I’ve got another 4-0 week on my hands. So grab a seat, and make sure to keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times. All lines from Bovada.

Last week: 4-0-0

Playoffs: 4-0-0

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

This is a game that’s going to scare a lot of people. Falcons look like they’ve put it all together. How can you resist betting against Nick Foles in the playoffs. How can you resist betting against an Andy Reid disciple in the playoffs? I certainly understand the appeal of the Falcons. They looked great last round. But you can’t run away from the DNA, and the National Championship Game was the worst possible sign for the Falcons. What does that have to do with anything? Well, without Carson Wentz, looking at the season-long numbers for these teams is kind of pointless, at least in terms of Eagles O vs Falcons D (Falcons defense is also way better in real life then the numbers would suggest, which is something I can’t really wrap my head around). So that means this game is going to come down to Matt Ryan versus a far superior defense than the Rams’, Dan Quinn vs. Doug Pederson, and the mental toughness of both teams. Now it looks a little different, doesn’t it? Now it comes down to Loser DNA. Granted, Philly has some potent, potent Loser DNA. Some of the worst city-wide Loser DNA out there. But not even Philly is as bad as Atlanta. Which brings us back to the National Championship (another game whose outcome was obvious if you’ve ever watched a game of football before). If Georgia was able to hang on and finally, finally, win something for a Georgia-based team, I’d have a completely different feeling about this game. But they lost. In spectacular fashion. In impossible fashion. It was the slowest, most unavoidable death these eyes have ever seen. It somehow set the city of Atlanta back another 25 years, and they were already about 175 years back from the other countless horrifyingly terrible losses. Falcons have a 0% chance of winning this game. There’s just too much history going against them.

Pick: Eagles +3

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-14)

Do we really need to talk about this game?

Pick: Patriots -14

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)

One of my favorite things people do is take games that happened in the first half of the season and use them as gospel when trying to figure out who has the edge in a playoff game. For example: when the Jags went to Pittsburgh in week 5, they forced Big Ben to have one of the worst games a QB can have (0 TDs, 5 INTs) on the way to a blowout victory. Surely the same can happen again, no? Well, since that game the Steelers are 9-1 in games in which Roethlisberger and Co. played, Big Ben took the fork out of his back, and the Steelers regained their place as the team everyone is hoping can beat the Pats in the AFC after a sluggish start. Blake Bortles went from being the worst to being good to being the worst at least five times during that stretch. Point is, pretty much any individual game that happens before Thanksgiving can be thrown out in the playoffs since teams and players reinvent themselves so many times over the course of the season. Something you can draw from? Actual playoff games that happened last week, and if I’m a Jags fan, I’m not feeling great. They had to eke out a 10-3 win against the Bills. The Bills! Yes, the defense looked amazing, as usual. But it’s a big difference between facing the number 26 team in Offensive DVOA and the number 3 team. The Steelers are scoring more than 3 points. Antonio Brown is playing. Probably not at 100% health, but playing nonetheless. Want to put Jalen Ramsey on him to shut him down? Cool, there’s still Smith-Schuster. Want to put A.J. Bouye on him? That’s fine, LeVeon Bell is still the best pass-catching back in the league. And Martavis Bryant, contrary to popular belief, is technically still in the NFL. And they probably have two or three other random ass receivers they took in the third or fourth round that are unstoppable on third down. As long as they aren’t playing the Patriots, the Steelers will score on anyone. The Steelers’ D is better than the Bills’, too. Marginally better (9th in DVOA as opposed to 15th, 19 points allowed against 22, and Steelers led the league in sacks), but still better. Jags looked completely inept on offense. You’re telling me the team that won on Sunday in Jacksonville is going to go on the road to Pittsburgh, where it’s forecasted to be at most 18 degrees on Sunday, and score more than 10 points? Yeah, no. I want the Jags to win. I want the easiest possible schedule for the Pats, competitiveness be damned. But they’ve got no shot, here.

Pick: Steelers -7.5

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

When I described myself climbing up the imposing Gridiron Mountain to consult the footballing spirits, this game was the primary reason. You could pretty easily make the case this is the best matchup on paper of the entire season. Both teams rank in the top 10 of offensive and defensive DVOA (Vikings rank in the top 5 in both, fwiw). Both top 10 in points scored and points allowed. Somewhat improbably, both teams have one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Both coaching staffs are good, or at least don’t make horrible decisions at every turn, which puts them in the top four remaining in the playoffs. It would seem these teams are perfect foils for each other. Which way do I turn? How can I possibly split these hairs? Sure, Drew Brees is better than Case Keenum and I trust him more when the chips are down, but I also trust the Vikings’ defense more than I trust the Saints’. And while the Saints’ trio of Ingram-Kamara-Thomas is one of the best and most explosive group of playmakers in the league, the Vikings have five or six guys that can match that production. The Vikings ruined a perfectly good home field advantage by not giving their stadium a retractable roof, so the dome-team-coming-up-north-to-play-in-the-cold factor is out. Both teams have decent enough kickers that don’t have a history of blowing games. So, when all else fails, where do you look? You have to find the best storyline. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year, and no team has ever played the Super Bowl at home. Wouldn’t it be something if the Vikings made the Super Bowl this year? It sure would. But what about the Loser DNA? Ahh, excellent point! The Vikings have some of the most vile, corrosive cases of Loser DNA in recorded history. But theirs is a special strain of Loser DNA. With the exception of the Blair Walsh debacle, the Vikings’ Loser DNA only rears its ugly head when hope is at its highest. Only when the fanbase is fully invested can the Vikings break their hearts, like some kind of perverse god who feeds on the belief of its worshippers. A divisional round matchup against a tough team that’s a popular Super Bowl pick in what’s essentially a coin flip game? That’s not when everyone’s feeling good. Even the most optimistic of Viking fans are surely mentally prepared to lose this game. But an NFC Championship game against either the Nick Foles-lead Eagles or the 6-seed Falcons? Getting one step away from history, only needing to win a game that will look impossible to lose? That’s when the trickster god that controls the Vikings fate will make his presence felt. I already feel bad for the people of Minnesota.

Pick: Vikings -4

Rejoice and be glad, for it’s finally time for the NFL playoffs. It was a long, mostly terrible regular season, but the carrot at the end of the stick that is playoff football is so close you can almost reach out and touch it. Sadly, the Patriots have yet another first round bye, so they won’t be able to ritualistically murder a hapless AFC opponent this week. Don’t let that take away from the excitement, though. The next three weeks of play get all the shine, but Wild Card weekend is an underrated source of thrills: it’s the perfect blend of pretty high stakes, some teams that were slightly less terrible than other teams in the regular season, and, of course, the start of the Playoff Diet, which consists entirely of pizza, wings, chips, various dips, and beer. Gym’s open on Monday, though, so it’s okay to pig out.

With only four games this weekend, it’s time to get a little more in depth on each game. I’m a stat junkie, so I’ll be hitting you with as much hard-hitting #analysis as you can handle. Aside from ESPN and NFL.com, the sites I like the most are Football Outsiders (DVOA), Pro Football Focus, and some other, secret corners of the web that only the true football intelligentsia can access. Not only that, by doing this in the middle of the Bomb Cyclone currently blasting the Northeast, I’m imbued with all of Mother Nature’s game-predicting prowess. As you all know, I went 256-0 in the regular season, so I’ll be looking to keep things rolling in the playoffs. All lines taken from Bovada.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

You knew the second the Titans clinched a playoff berth that they’d be playing on Saturday afternoon, and here we are. In many ways, this is the least intriguing playoff game I can remember. The Titans are just terrible and the Chiefs are one of the least trustworthy teams in the NFL. The Titans finished in the bottom half of the league in virtually every possible offensive category (the finished 15th in rush yards per game, hooray! DeMarco Murray won’t play, though. Oh no!). They’re totally inept. I was a huge Marcus Mariota guy when he was at Oregon, and I was rooting so hard for him to be good in the NFL. He just isn’t. After showing flashes the last few years, he completely imploded this year. More picks than touchdowns, barely 7 yards an attempt, career low yards per game. He stinks. The Titans stink. I literally can’t remember a worse playoff team. Any team worth its salt should beat this team by 300. Only problem is the Chiefs aren’t worth their salt. Their defense is a total abomination. 30th in total defense DVOA (ignore the 31st ranked team), including dead last against the run. Wait, didn’t we just say running the ball was the only thing the Titans were okay at? Hmmm. Chiefs have an explosive offense with multiple weapons, but the fact that they completely disappeared for the entire middle part of the season shouldn’t be ignored. And, of course, there’s the intangibles. Alex Smith had a career year. That didn’t make him not Alex Smith anymore. I love Andy Reid to death and think he’s the second or third best coach in the NFL, but the playoffs haven’t been kind to him. The Chiefs haven’t won a home playoff game since 1994. I repeat, the Chiefs haven’t won a home playoff game since 1994. You know who’s won a home playoff game more recently than the Chiefs? The Bills! The team that finally broke the longest playoff drought in the league has a more recent home playoff win than the Chiefs. You think the mentally weak Chiefs aren’t thinking about that? You think Travis Kelce won’t be thinking about Gronk somehow getting a comedy special on Showtime the whole game, seething with rage? This game is so obvious it’s honestly depressing. The Titans are winning a playoff game, folks, and the Chiefs are to blame.

Pick: Titans +9

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6)

Now this is more like it, you’re probably thinking. Two high flying teams locking heads in a playoff shootout. Defense stay home, right? Wrong. Yes, these are two top ten offenses statistically. Very similar, in fact. The Rams averaged 3 yards fewer per game than Atlanta (it should be noted that the Rams didn’t play their starters in week 17). Both strike a strong balance between a downfield passing game and tough-yet-explosive running games. They can both score points in a vacuum. But this isn’t a vacuum, and the Falcons’ defense stinks and the Rams’ doesn’t. In DVOA, which I go to all the time and admit isn’t perfect, the Rams rank 6th in defense and the Falcons rank 22nd. The Rams rank 3rd against the pass, and, despite struggling against the run, have the best defensive tackle in history on the roster. The Rams also had more sacks and ten more takeaways. They’re just better defensively. And the Rams best unit is special teams, too! They have the second ranked special teams in DVOA, trailing only the Ravens (who didn’t make the playoffs, so make of that what you will). The Rams hold a clear advantage on the field and on the sidelines. Dan Quinn is an abysmal game coach. The amount of basic strategic mistakes he makes every week is totally baffling. Sean McVay, on the other hand, is probably the leader in the clubhouse for Coach of the Year. So the Rams have a better d, better special teams, a better coach, anything else? Oh, yeah. They don’t have the biggest collapse in sports history weighing on their minds. Matt Ryan took a huge step back this year already, and once he feels those bright playoff lights shining down on him, he’s likely to collapse. This one could get ugly.

Pick: Rams -6

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9)

Bills-Jags playoff game let’s goooooooooooooooooooooo!!! The ultimate bizarro world matchup. Two of the sparsest yet most passionate fan bases in the league. Two of America’s most treasured cities. Two of the proudest, most historic franchises in pro sports. I’m legitimately excited for this game, but I’m worried that may be short lived. To put it simply: the Jags have the best defense in the NFL and the Bills have one of the worst offenses and may be without their best player LeSean McCoy. It pretty much just comes down to that. The Bills won’t be able to get anything going on offense. The only thing they have is that they don’t turn the ball over: take away the Nathan Peterman game and they’d have the fewest giveaways in the league. It just so happens the Jags had the second most takeaways in the league. “But Brian,” you’re saying, “the Jags offense isn’t good either. Do you really trust Blake Bortles in a playoff game?” As for Bortles, honestly I have an odd amount of faith in him. He just seems like one of those guys who’s randomly good in the playoffs. As for the offense as a whole, it’s true, it isn’t especially good. It also isn’t that bad. 16th in DVOA, but 6th in total yards and 5th in points per game. The Bills defense also leaves a lot to be desired. Rookie corner Tre’Davious White is an absolute superstar, but they finished 31st in rushing defense DVOA and gave up more rushing TDs than anybody. Guess which team finished the season with the most total rushing yards and tied for second in rushing touchdowns? If you said the Jaguars, you’d be right. I feel the city of Buffalo’s pain, but their first foray into playoff football since 1999 might be short-lived.

Pick: Jags -9

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7)

It’s NFL Cliche cannon at this point that it’s tough to beat a team three times in one season. But is it, though? Turns out not really. There have been 20 playoff games where one team won both games during the regular season. The team that won the regular season? They’re 13-7. Saints won both times these two teams met up in the regular season and the game is being played in the notoriously difficult to play in SuperDome. Defensively, they’re so similar it’s almost not even worth talking about. They finished 8-9 in defensive DVOA and were one point away from allowing the exact same amount of total points on the season. Panthers had more sacks, Saints had more takeaways. It’s a wash. Panthers offense, on its best day, is adequate. Saints have the best offense in the NFC and a definite coaching advantage. Do people even know Drew Brees set a new completion percentage record this season? He and Mike Thomas are somehow afterthoughts, that’s how good the Saints are on o. Unless Cam Newton goes crazy and drags the team to a win, I can’t see the Panthers winning. I can see them covering, though. Seven points is too much for a third matchup of the season that doesn’t involve the Patriots.

Pick: Panthers +7 (but Saints win)

BONUS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PICK

• Alabama -4.5 vs Georgia

I find myself saying this a lot, but there really is no better time of year than NFL Playoff Clinching Scenarios Season. This year feels tame by typical standards, but the years where no one without a doctorate in mathematics can figure out who’s in and who’s out are always amazing. Are the Titans in? Well, not only do they have to win, there has to be a waning crescent moon and Jupiter and Mars must be in perfect alignment. What about the Ravens? They have to win, everyone else has to lose, and if it isn’t an El Nino year, forget about it. The Bills? Believe me, it’s better if you don’t know. The other great part about this time of year? No one cares anymore. By my count, only 12 teams can gain anything by winning (13 if you include the Browns). That means 62.5% of the league is jockeying for draft position, planning vacations, getting ready to fire coaches, padding stats, and trying not to get hurt. Makes for some great, competitive games! Gonna be a good week, I can feel it.

These picks and all remaining picks until the Super Bowl will be made in the memory of my cat, Sundae. We got her when I was in 7th or 8th grade, and we had to put her down on Wednesday. I know people usually care way more about dogs than cats, but Sundae was an important part of my life; one of my best friends and one of the original fans of the Brian’s Den. She was real sick, so I know she’s in a better place now, but she’ll still be missed. No one was better at picking games than her, and I will do all I can to live up to her memory. On to the games.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7)

Did you know Blake Martinez leads the league in tackles? It really doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things (the majority of individual defensive stats don’t), but just something to tuck away. Both coaches should be fired after this game, but somehow Mike McCarthy will hang on again.

Pick: Packers +7

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11)

Another fun fact: the Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year. And the Vikings are in the playoffs. Crazy, I know. Bet you haven’t heard that be brought up this year.

Pick: Vikings -11

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Folks, I have some bad news: Nick Foles is not, in fact, as good as Carson Wentz. RIP Eagles.

Pick: Eagles +3

Washington Redskins (-3) at New York Giants

Literally the only interesting thing that could happen in this game is a brawl on the Giants’ sideline after Eli Apple comes down from the crowd like he’s Roman Reigns.

Pick: Redskins -3

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-15)

I’d say the Jets could probably cover, but that would mean they’d actually score a point. Surprise, surprise, Pats get homefield.

Pick: Pats -15

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5)

I haven’t felt this good about a game all year: I’m all in on the Browns. Steelers have a bye secured and could theoretically get homefield if the Pats lose. As we just covered, the Pats are playing the Jets. Everyone, including the Steelers, knows the Pats will win. The Steelers are just going to want to get this game over with and escape with no injuries. They won’t care whatsoever. The Browns, on the other hand, care very much. No one wants to be the second 0-16 team. The first time was funny, sure, but the second time doesn’t make anyone happy. Don’t be surprised if Jon Kitna and Dan Orlovsky take Big Ben out in the locker room before the game to ensure their record is safe.

Pick: Browns +10.5

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4)

Please go scoreless so they never cut to this game on RedZone.

Pick: Texans +4

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins

To make things simple: If the Bills win and Ravens lose, they’re in. If they hadn’t started Nathan Peterman, odds are they would have already clinched. Gotta love NFL coaching! Yet another fun fact: there have been three seasons in NFL history where a player caught at least 100 passes and had less than 1,000 yards, with all of those players playing primarily in the backfield (shoutout Larry Centers for catching 100 passes as a fullback). Unless he has at least 105 yards on Sunday, Jarvis Landry will become the fourth player and first wide receiver to ever do it. Someone get him out of Miami.

Pick: Dolphins +3

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

If you don’t see this shocking Cardinals win as the Seahawks implode on the sideline and try to fight everyone as their season and current run go down in flames, I don’t know what to tell you.

Pick: Cardinals +9.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Brocos (-3)

If none of the Chiefs big names play, this could be the most boring game ever played.

Pick: Broncos -3

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

There’s no stopping Jimmy G. I assume the Rams will realize this early on and will proceed to quit. That’s what I’d do if I had to face the second greatest QB in league history.

Pick: 49ers -3.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

If the Ravens win, they’re in. If they lose, things get dicey but odds are they’ll still be in. As much as I’d love it if they missed the playoffs, the Bengals haven’t won a game like this since Nam.

Pick: Ravens -10

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Tampa Bay Bucs

Saints win the division if they win, and friends, let me tell you something: the Bucs STINK.

Pick: Saints -7

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Wait, a game where both teams are actually playing for something? What the hell? Panthers are already in, but would win the division with a win and a Saints loss. Falcons would be in with a win or a Seahawks loss. It would be the perfect Falcons scenario if they made the playoffs, won their Wild Card game, maybe even made the NFC Championship game, only to lose in the most heartbreaking fashion imaginable.

Pick: Falcons -4

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-8)

The Chargers need to win and have both the Titans and Bills lose, which, quite frankly, seems entirely possible. Raiders are so bad but will probably be a popular pick to bounce back next season.

Pick: Raiders +8

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)

I really hope the Jags don’t punt on this game, because the Titans should not be in the playoffs under any circumstances. They’re just so bad and so boring and have a 0% chance of winning a game. Which means they’ll be playing the Pats in the second round.

Pick: Titans -3

Bonus Bowl Picks

• USC +9 vs Ohio State
• Washington vs Penn State -3
• Wisconsin -4.5 vs Miami (FL)
• UCF +10 vs Auburn
• LSU -3 vs Notre Dame
• Georgia vs Oklahoma +2
• Alabama -3 vs Clemson